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LA Kings +135 tonight over Turco

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Vegas Dave
No, you are quite right. Sorry if my response came off as attacking you or anything, it wasn't meant to. I mean obviously none of this is going to slip through the cracks on linemakers or anything, I know that too.

Herman is just making the point that you can't handicap games at all. He's like a miniature version of that piece of shit Nicky. On a sports gambling message board, he feels the need to constantly point out that having an opinion or noticing a cool trend isn't allowed and won't matter because bookmakers already know it.

He's so fucking sharp, after all.
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Is durito betting games based on the info you posted? Is monkeyf0cker?

Why does it always have to be about Nicky?

If you read threads on this site that weren't your own you would know I've been taking advice from durito for the past month or two, and not Nicky.
 
Herman
Is durito betting games based on the info you posted? Is monkeyf0cker?

Why does it always have to be about Nicky?
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As I've said a million times, I don't claim to be a sharp or a professional. I know that you can't beat the game longterm and make a consistent profit doing it just handicapping games and formulating opinions based on teams and their personnel. But I'm not trying to make a career out of it by watching lines all day; it is a fun hobby to me, and I've had stretches where I've done pretty well with it.

You are driving home a point that isn't lost on me, or much of anyone. So why exactly are you driving it home?

Simply to be a pest. That is your sole fucking purpose. Just like Nicky, which is why I brought him up; except unlike you, he actually got paid for his stupid shtick. You just do it for kicks.
 
I'd personally be a lot more concerned about whether there's anything predictive about those goalie matchup numbers than I would be about them being factored into the lines.

I have done exactly zero work on hockey, but from what I've seen in other sports, I'd be surprised if a small sample of a single team's performance against a goalie had much significance at all.

In a worst case scenario, they might have almost no significance AND they might be factored into the line.

Just throwing that out there for the sake of discussion.
 
One of the biggest things that I look at when betting hockey is how a goalie has done recently...over the past 5-6 games. Goalies more than almost any other position in sports are streaky....when a goalie is on....you can ride him hard. When he is off....great fade material. Similar to a pitcher in baseball but I can control a game even more in my mind...
 
MrX
I'd personally be a lot more concerned about whether there's anything predictive about those goalie matchup numbers than I would be about them being factored into the lines.

I have done exactly zero work on hockey, but from what I've seen in other sports, I'd be surprised if a small sample of a single team's performance against a goalie had much significance at all.

In a worst case scenario, they might have almost no significance AND they might be factored into the line.

Just throwing that out there for the sake of discussion.
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This is fair, it is indeed a small sample size. And perhaps completely irrelevant, considering he is with a new team now.

He just has some demons against the Kings.

 
Vegas Dave
This is fair, it is indeed a small sample size. And perhaps completely irrelevant, considering he is with a new team now.
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I really want to have a go at modeling hockey one of these days, and separating the goalie from the defense is probably one of the most interesting aspects to model. A good defense not only keeps shots on goal down, but they also allow less dangerous shots, inflating the goalies save %. You need pretty good data to model that, but there's some interesting stuff out there.
 
MrX
I really want to have a go at modeling hockey one of these days, and separating the goalie from the defense is probably one of the most interesting aspects to model. A good defense not only keeps shots on goal down, but they also allow less dangerous shots, inflating the goalies save %. You need pretty good data to model that, but there's some interesting stuff out there.
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I've been meaning to do it myself, MrX.
 
I watched the third period of the game. Not sure how the Kings didn't even the score. They had the puck in the zone most of the period and had countless opportunities at the net. Chicago gets one breakaway and goes up by two with about 4 or 5 minutes left. That let the air out of the sails for L.A.
 
MonkeyF0cker
I watched the third period of the game. Not sure how the Kings didn't even the score. They had the puck in the zone most of the period and had countless opportunities at the net. Chicago gets one breakaway and goes up by two with about 4 or 5 minutes left. That let the air out of the sails for L.A.
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For sure. Not a good game at all for Bernier. Second goal to give Chicago the lead was a really bad rebound, and on that goal that iced the game in the third, he was way off on the pokecheck. Still, aren't going to win very often scoring only one goal, bad goaltending or not.
 
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