i don't believe the 3 of you have the same birthday

[stevek173]

Bread Wally and the other guy.

That is a 1 in 48,627,125 shot

Admit your sin please whoever is lying.

I want to see Birth Certificates

 

[Matty]

1 in 133,225, Mr. Mortgage Processor

 

[stevek173]

How are you arriving at that shouldn't it be 365^3

 

[Matty]

No, that would be 4 people. The odds that any 2 people share the same birthday are 1 in 365. 3 people, 365*365=133,225.

 

[stevek173]

Ah right right. I need to reconsider if I believe it now, ty.

 

[Saulty]

No, that would be 4 people. The odds that any 2 people share the same birthday are 1 in 365. 3 people, 365*365=133,225.

What if it's a leap year Matty?

 

[Mudcat]

However that would be the odds of 2 or 3 people having the same birthday when there are only 2/3 people there. If you talk about a room with 50 people in it, the odds of 2 people having the same birthday are not that long. I'm not going to start whipping out formulae but I wouldn't be surprised if it is about even money. The odds for 3 are longer of course but it's not crazy.

 

[stevek173]

I know you addressed him but I'm going anyway. 133,590 if one born on a leap year, 133,956 if both.

 

[Matty]

I knew you would bring this up Pavy. Doesn't change the odds when the first guy declares being born on Feb. 1st, but I guess that a more precise calculation would be 365.25 * 365.25 for 3 random people sharing the same birthday. 1 in 133,408 or so.

 

[Matty]

I know you addressed him but I'm going anyway. 133,590 if one born on a leap year, 133,956 if both.

 

[stevek173]

However that would be the odds of 2 or 3 people having the same birthday when there are only 2/3 people there. If you talk about a room with 50 people in it, the odds of 2 people having the same birthday are not that long. I'm not going to start whipping out formulae but I wouldn't be surprised if it is about even money. The odds for 3 are longer of course but it's not crazy.

It is true that there has to be more than simple math to the equation. I mean people plan this stuff out in large part, when they are "trying" i.e. more ejaculttions to pursue pregger status. Very good point, and this massively skews the equations if weighted properly. If someone here could please to a full statistical analysis of this to calculate the exact odds so I could decide if I think anyone is lying I would fully appreciate it.

 

[Matty]

However that would be the odds of 2 or 3 people having the same birthday when there are only 2/3 people there. If you talk about a room with 50 people in it, the odds of 2 people having the same birthday are not that long. I'm not going to start whipping out formulae but I wouldn't be surprised if it is about even money. The odds for 3 are longer of course but it's not crazy.

Correct. Not sure my math is right, but assuming 50 people, I think there's a 1.9% chance that 3 of them share the same b-day. 1 in 53 shot or so.

 

[Matty]

It is true that there has to be more than simple math to the equation. I mean people plan this stuff out in large part, when they are "trying" i.e. more ejaculttions to pursue pregger status. Very good point, and this massively skews the equations if weighted properly. If someone here could please to a full statistical analysis of this to calculate the exact odds so I could decide if I think anyone is lying I would fully appreciate it.

Slightly more births in the fall, but not such a big variation from the norm. Birthdates are quite evenly spread out.

 

[Mudcat]

If someone here could please to a full statistical analysis of this to calculate the exact odds so I could decide if I think anyone is lying I would fully appreciate it.

It's too bad we lost PapaGeorge. He would have been the perfect man for the job.

 

[roguejuror]

Stevie did you and Tris "tried"?

 

[MrMonkey]

Stevie did you and Tris "tried"?

Which one is Tris?

 

[roguejuror]

Which one is Tris?

The one with the delicious tooku.

 

[stevek173]

She told me she had her tubes tied man. Was I trying without knowing it? Possibly. I thought it was party time. I truly do wish her and hers good luck - they will need it; gonna be tough for her in the big house.