Yeah. You can use Pinny drop downs, DJ.
Time for some more thread resurrection that's completely off topic!
So I'm trying to calculate the implied push probs based on buying a half point via pinny's drop downs.
If we look at the Minnesota / New Orleans game, I have the following prices (from yesterday):
+3.5 / -3.5
-105 / -108
+3 / -3
+118 / -133
+2.5 / -2.5
+141 / -158
Now, If I try and compute the implied probability of the push prob based on going from -3 -> -2.5, I get something in the ball park of 9.351% for the home fave.
If I do the same thing for +3 -> +3.5, I get 9.204% for the away dog.
And If I just measure the push from going from +2.5 -> +3.5 or -3.5 -> -2.5, I get 9.2694%, which is not quite the average of the two (off by about .01%).
I'm thinking the last result is probably the best way to go about this, although since the drop down menus cutoff at a certain point, my sample size of push probs will be smaller.
Is there a reason for the discrepancy? Is it just from the fact that they don't quote prices down to the decimal (IE, they show -105, as opposed to -105.3)
Or Is there something I'm missing about the difference between away dogs and home faves? Should the push probs be different? I would think if you were looking at home dogs in the 90's, when there was a bias against them and the markets weren't as efficient, you would expect to see something odd there. However, would that still exist today?
Or are the first two calculations just bad math?
