Herman vs. Self Discipline vs. SIA

[Herman]

I have good reason to believe that betting allegedly inefficient lines in MLB doesn't work, not at SIA anyway. I got several thousand bets' worth of proof.

So wait until an hour before gametime before making plays in MLB?

Also looking at Reds/Pirates under and a couple of other close ones that could become plays.

 

[Matty]

Like I said, I think it doesn't matter, MLB is a subtler art than foots and hoops.

i.e. you're not likely to make money by betting stuff that looks off, whether you bet early or late. You're gonna bet an even mix of +EV and -EV bets over the long run if all you do is compare Pinny to SIA.

That's been my experience anyway. 4000 bets over 3 seasons and a handful of units in profit. Seriously.

 

[Herman]

 

[Matty]

MrX was recently arguing that the beat-the-closer thing was overrated - and he's a MLB specialist.

It does work very nicely with point-spread sports.

 

[Herman]

Pirates/Reds Under 9 -115 Risk 13

Pinny has Under 9 -133

 

[fiveteamer]

MrX was recently arguing that the beat-the-closer thing was overrated.

Nickay!

 

[Herman]

Orioles +1.5 -150 Risk 12

Pinny has -163/+150

 

[Herman]

NFL Panthers +7 -115 Risk 12

Pinny has -129/+115

 

[rito]

I mostly bet nhl puck lines and mlb run lines at sia. Not sure how well i did at Mlb, but won for sure on nhl. They increased their vig on mlb this year too.

I've noticed they have been off on pirates all year, i've bet a lot of pirates this year other places for a -15% or so return. So perhaps the market is over valuing pirates or perhaps i just suck. I've hAd lots of success betting shit teams in nfl though.

 

[MrX]

I have good reason to believe that betting allegedly inefficient lines in MLB doesn't work, not at SIA anyway. I got several thousand bets' worth of proof.

Interesting. How much of that was straight sides.

 

[rito]

I have a very small sample size since i usually didnt "work" during the summer, and i dont have exact data, but if you take out props my mlb roi is less than 1% with the expectation v pinny close more like 3%.

 

[Herman]

Oklahoma -6.5 -110 Risk 12

Pinny has -6.5 -120

 

[Herman]

Florida Intl +18.5 -110 Risk 12

Pinny has -122

Troy +14 -105 Risk 12

Pinny has -114

 

[Bread]

are you actually betting these or thinking out loud?

 

[kato]

herman,

great job.

kato

 

[Herman]

are you actually betting these or thinking out loud?

If I post a play like that then I've already bet it

Pay attention here

Fade me for free money

 

[Bread]

Wish I did last night :madd:

 

[Herman]

Reds/Pirates Over and Tigers -1.5 are your 2 winners tonight....I'm on the other sides