illmatick
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Here was my write-up on the fight , I really should have been a lot heavier on Jung. Second fight in a row he cashes for me at close to +300 or higher.
Before evaluating the UFC betting line for this match-up, ask yourself who exactly has Poirier beaten to deserve being a -350 favorite over Jung. For me, beating the likes of a massively over-hyped Josh Grispi and a one dimensional Jason Young doesn’t accurately quantify the 77% probability of Dustin winning that the line (-330) seems to infer.
In fact, you could make the case that Jung has not only fought the more accomplished opponents, but also looked better in doing so. I’d personally put wins over Michihiro Omigawa and Mark Hominik over anyone Poirier has beaten during his recent 5 fight wining streak as a featherweight. If you look a bit closer into those match-ups, you’ll find that Dustin was close to -300 or higher in his last 3 fights, none of which posed anywhere near the threat posed by Jung.
What we’re looking at here is one fighter who’s seemingly being overvalued for his unbeaten streak as a featherweight against an opponent who was inexplicably undervalued at +350 in his last fight against Mark Hominick. I’m not sure what it’s gonna take for Jung to get the credit he deserved from UFC odds makers, but a win here would undeniably cement his status as top 5 featherweight.
One of the key alterations made to the Korean Zombie’s attack can be attributed to his being knocked out by a head kick from George Roop. Since then, he’s been a lot less reckless in his attack and put much more emphasis on being defensively aware on the feet. First, we watched him follow a much more conducive gameplan in the rematch with Leonard Garcia, and then against Hominick, you could see he was looking to approach the match as a defensive counter puncher opposed to his previously exposed straight forward assault.
Dustin is rightly the favorite, as I see him having the better chance at implementing takedowns off of his reeling combinations. He circles the cage a little better and cuts the ring off at a much sharper angle when he’s on the attack, whereas Jung can still be a bit too stationary at times. However, at +270, I’ll gladly take my chances on the Korean Zombie squeaking out a tightly contested decision
Before evaluating the UFC betting line for this match-up, ask yourself who exactly has Poirier beaten to deserve being a -350 favorite over Jung. For me, beating the likes of a massively over-hyped Josh Grispi and a one dimensional Jason Young doesn’t accurately quantify the 77% probability of Dustin winning that the line (-330) seems to infer.
In fact, you could make the case that Jung has not only fought the more accomplished opponents, but also looked better in doing so. I’d personally put wins over Michihiro Omigawa and Mark Hominik over anyone Poirier has beaten during his recent 5 fight wining streak as a featherweight. If you look a bit closer into those match-ups, you’ll find that Dustin was close to -300 or higher in his last 3 fights, none of which posed anywhere near the threat posed by Jung.
What we’re looking at here is one fighter who’s seemingly being overvalued for his unbeaten streak as a featherweight against an opponent who was inexplicably undervalued at +350 in his last fight against Mark Hominick. I’m not sure what it’s gonna take for Jung to get the credit he deserved from UFC odds makers, but a win here would undeniably cement his status as top 5 featherweight.
One of the key alterations made to the Korean Zombie’s attack can be attributed to his being knocked out by a head kick from George Roop. Since then, he’s been a lot less reckless in his attack and put much more emphasis on being defensively aware on the feet. First, we watched him follow a much more conducive gameplan in the rematch with Leonard Garcia, and then against Hominick, you could see he was looking to approach the match as a defensive counter puncher opposed to his previously exposed straight forward assault.
Dustin is rightly the favorite, as I see him having the better chance at implementing takedowns off of his reeling combinations. He circles the cage a little better and cuts the ring off at a much sharper angle when he’s on the attack, whereas Jung can still be a bit too stationary at times. However, at +270, I’ll gladly take my chances on the Korean Zombie squeaking out a tightly contested decision
