Hooligans Sportsbook

GLPPOTD - Thursday April 29th **ATTN MCBASEBALL**

  • Start date •
  • Replies
    42 Replies •
  • Views 2,797 Views
Follow
PLAY 1

Tampa Bay RL -107

Garza rolls in with a 2.17 ERA after giving up 5 runs in his outing against Toronto last Friday.
-In his previous 3 outings this season gave up 1,1, and 0 runs
-Posted a 3.24 ERA at home last season

-Rays are the highest scoring team in the league at 6.1 runs per game
-while the Royals are last in runs given up at 5.5 runs per game.


Hochevar has mixed results so far this season but has a 4.91 ERA on the road giving up 6 runs in 11 innings on the road
Yes it is still early in the season to read too much into the road ERA so far, but looking back at last season, Hochevar was 3-8 with an 8.14 ERA on the road in 66 innings pitched compared to a 5.17 ERA at home in 76 innings

The way Garza has been throwing, I don't see how Kansas City's bats putting up more than 2-3 runs.

TB's bats are too hot right now and I really don't see Hochevar and the bullpen holding TB below 5 runs

>Avoid the heavy juice because anything can happen, but take the RL at a fair price
 
Play 2

CHW @ Texas Under 9.5


Play 3
CHW +110

Both teams and the umpiring crew will hit the road following this 2:05 afternoon game in Texas which usually leads to a faster paced game.

The pitching matchup of Floyd vs. Feldman has been less than stellar so far this season, but I would expect both to perform closer to their expectations.
Feldman struggled in last outing which was attributed to a stomach virus. I have listed the day stats for both starters over the past. Floyd's one outing this season during the day he got shelled but see that as an anomaly based off his career stats.

FLOYD Day game stats

5-2 with a 3.52 ERA in 2009
9-1 with a 3.77 ERA in 2008
1-1 with 2.30 ERA in 2007
1-0 with 1.35 ERA in 2006

FELDMAN day game (starter) stats
4-2 with 3.86 in 2009
0-3 with 5.02 in 2008
(non-starter in 2007)
 
The TB RL play looks great to me. Looked over it and love to use it as a best bet but won't. Pat Burrell is 0 for 3 with 3 KKs lifetime against this guy. Only thing that scares me is if he plays?

Vote is for TB -1.5
 
Last edited:
mcbaseball10
Mr. X, why do you hate the TB bet?
Click to expand...

Mathematically speaking, I have KC as a pretty strong play.

As far as the reasoning goes, I think you're relying on a lot of factors that regress heavily toward the mean (pitcher home/road splits, last 3 outings, best/worst offense in the league). Doing that will usually put you on the wrong side of a play, as I think it did here.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.