Alright guys, I haven't made up my mind on a couple of the others, but my biggest play of the day happens to start in three hours so I wanted to get this one up first so you can mull it over while I do the other write-ups. My favorite play on the board today is:
Fernando Verdasco +100 (available at DSI and Bodog)
Now, before I get into more in-depth analysis, I want to break this match down to its most simple characteristics. Verdasco is ranked 12th in the world (he was #7 last year) and Berdych is ranked 20th (highest ranking #9 in 2007). Berdych just beat Roger Federer in the last round in a marathon three setter featuring two tiebreak sets. Fernando just lost to Berdych two weeks ago at Indian Wells in a moderate upset. Berdych leads their head to head record 5-3, and yet the odds are basically a pick 'em, indicating heavy action anchoring Verdasco at this price.
Now, I'm not reading too much into the loss at Indian Wells, Verdasco just wasn't hitting the ball well and he knew it. It's not that he tanked the match, but with these players that live in the Top 25 for most of their career, they play each other often and it's not hard to see how they would regularly trade victories head to head, so much of tennis comes down to recent form. Which brings us to today's match, which provides Fernando an opportunity to pay back the loss from IW and capitalize on an emotionally drained Berd-man after he just beat Federer.
I mean, let's face it, under any other circumstances, a player who just beat the world No. 1 and faces an opponent he defeated easily just two weeks ago would almost certainly be a commanding favorite in his next match. We see that's not the case here, in fact 'Nando opened at +105 and keeps creeping slowly lower; most American books now offer him at -111 or worse.
Verdasco's form has been much improved, too, since Indian Wells. He's fresh off beating Marin Cilic (a player who employs the exact same tactics as Berdych), this year's new entrant into the world Top 10 and looks to be even more fired up at interviews since Roger was eliminated from the field. Like so many of his countrymen, this Spaniard is only truly dangerous when highly motivated, and he seems to have become energized at the thought of being a legitimate contender now to win this tourney.
I have one ace in the hole for this match though, and it's the weather. Berdych, like so many other Czech players, simply has no tolerance for humidity. He didn't just look exhausted after beating Roger, he looked on the verge of heatstroke. Year after year he hits a wall playing at thesee tournaments in humid sub-tropical locales, and Miami is certainly one of those. So where Verdasco just sweats it out and enjoys the heat, Berdych is sure to be uncomfortable playing this match at 3PM local time in the thick of the heat and humidity.
Berd-man has lost 4 of his last 6 Masters tournament quarterfinals; this is where we've all become accustomed to seeing him bow out, which is surprising considering his talent, but not so surprising considering his questionable committment to fitness and propensity for being a total flake.
Verdasco is our man here, I'm certain of it.
