Gamelive MLBl Picks 4/5/10 - Opening Day!

[MonkeyF0cker]

MrMonkey, if I were giving lessons on MLB my first tip would be don't ever lay that much chalk.

Look for underdogs in baseball betting. I don't like to lay anything over -130 or so to be honest. Dogs are where it's at in MLB moneylines.

That's a very bad bit of advice.

 

[MonkeyF0cker]

Mr. Monkey,

If you want to beat MLB, beat the no-vig closer on an efficient market. It's a long season. The only way you can beat it is to consistently get value in your wagers.

 

[roguejuror]

True, the notion that chalk is bad is a misconception.

 

[Jello]

Yeah, there's no science involved in my baseball picks. I'm sure you guys are right, but as a personal preference I don't play heavy chalk. I've been burned too many times by it.

 

[MonkeyF0cker]

If you have a 2% edge and bet Kelly, you'll make about seven times more money betting -240's than +240's. The key is quantifying your edge and staking, however. That's not always easy.

 

[Jello]

The key is quantifying your edge and staking, however. That's not always easy.

Exactly. I am just a "handicapper" when it comes to baseball. My picks are pure gut plays based on my perceived knowledge of the teams and competitors at that moment. I fully understand the fallacy of this approach, which is predominantly why I don't bet anymore. This is all just for fun in my case.

 

[MonkeyF0cker]

Ahh. Fair enough.