Fade strasburg tonight

[rito]

Weird. Well, I would expect square players to over-value a young phenom, but I also expect square players to love betting against teams like the Nats, especially getting a nice price. I guess the latter is playing a bigger role.

I dunno. One dumb linesmen doesn't say much. I didn't hit it because I was out, but I noticed last game Bal closed with ML and RL +ev v pinny at a few of the typical square shops. I suppose that could be because it was Baltimore, ut, i don't know, my instinct was with yours that he'd be overvalued (at least at the shit books I like to play at).


I assume valuing such a pitcher with almost no professional stats is extremely difficult. Are you still able to asses fair value there? (don't have to give anything away here, just curious).

 

[MrX]

I assume valuing such a pitcher with almost no professional stats is extremely difficult. Are you still able to asses fair value there? (don't have to give anything away here, just curious).

Well, since I'm using stats down to the pitch-level, and adjusting for strength of schedule, that stats from Strasburg's four games are not useless.

But, I'm not using any minor league data, so his stats are being regressed to the same mean as all MLB starters. And, with so few batters faced, he's being regressed quite a bit to a mean that is significantly lower than it should be if you believe any of the hype (or if you believe that minor league dominance correlates with major league success).

So, I find it pretty surprising that the model still finds him as a marginal play.

So yeah, to answer your question, I'm not really able to asses fair value here, but I'm pretty sure that I'm actually erring on the side of under-valuing Strasburg, and still having him as a play.

 

[Blitty]

im tailing

 

[Tron]

Bumping old threads


You're doing it wrong

 

[Fu Manchu]

nah this was a good one blitty