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Durito, MF, et all - all math wiz's please

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Oksana

Oksana

zig a zig ah
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Jun 16, 2010
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I'm getting hammered about a future bet I took and I need some math stuff to shove it down some people's throats.

I was watching a tennis match tonight and liked the look of Melzer who was up against Federer. His odds to win the French Open in a few weeks time were $251 when I looked.

A poster said in my thread, after Melzer beat Federer that he could get $100-1 on Melzer winning the French. I remembered the $251 I saw about 30 minutes prior and quickly jumped on to see if it was still there. It was, and the largest Aussie book had already dropped his odds to $51.

So I bet the max of $20 (yeah I know) and then had others bet for me as well. I actually screwed up and thought I was only in for $50 but it turns out I'm in for $70.

An hour after I got my bet and posted it on 2 forums, it dropped to $51, so I beat it by $200. I obviously didn't have anything to do with the price drop - I was just trying to help people out. The book was just readjusting their lines to match the rest of the market.

I DO NOT expect this guy to win the whole tournament - no hope in hell. He's coming off an injury (which is the main reason for the $251) and then there's Nadal who is unbeatable right now.

But I expect him to be priced as a high favourite in the first few rounds unless he gets a horrendous draw and if he does, I can still bet the other guy and try to green out for a bit.

Are there any mathematical things I can throw in there to justify my bet? I'm basically being called an asswipe because he has no shot of winning the whole thing, which I KNOW, but getting him at 251 when the rest of the market was between $51-$100 means something. I'm sure of it. I have no plans of riding this one out - merely want to green it out.

Just can't explain it properly or convincingly.
 
Deuce
If you're not expecting him to win it all, why bet the future? Lucksack hopes?
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No, because I know that after him beating Fed and going far in this tournament - it's a Masters tournament which is the highest level after a Slam - he's going to be a major favourite in the first few rounds.

Meaning I'll have him at $251 instead of $1.60 or much less. Actually much less in the first round or two.

I want to green out the bet - as in I hold him with this price to win 14k but if I bet whatever on his opponent at a dog price when I think he'll lose, I'll guarantee a profit.

Because he won't be a dog unless he progresses very far in the tournament, I can still bet the dog each round and make some cash in the end when he finally loses, especially since I only have $70 invested in him.

I'm not sure if I'm explaining it properly but that's the basic idea behind it.
 
Oksana
No, because I know that after him beating Fed and going far in this tournament - it's a Masters tournament which is the highest level after a Slam - he's going to be a major favourite in the first few rounds.

Meaning I'll have him at $251 instead of $1.60 or much less. Actually much less in the first round or two.

I want to green out the bet - as in I hold him with this price to win 14k but if I bet whatever on his opponent at a dog price when I think he'll lose, I'll guarantee a profit.

Because he won't be a dog unless he progresses very far in the tournament, I can still bet the dog each round and make some cash in the end when he finally loses, especially since I only have $70 invested in him.

I'm not sure if I'm explaining it properly but that's the basic idea behind it.
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Ok

Can I see your ass?
 
Matty
:wally:

It would only be fair Oksana. You've seen our balls and kok.
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Unfortunately my camera is broken right now. My roomie has one but won't let me use it even though we share the same computer. Not sure why.

reno cool
If you have a 250-1pay out on a 70/1 shot what more mathematical proof do you want? Some books offer the "will not win" bet.

Have you been playing with sbr pre teens?
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What do you think?? And namely one not so preteen who acts like Rainman repeating the same thing: "Melzer will not win, Melzer will not win"

Man I know this is a good bet. I just don't have the proper math shit to explain it. I already said repeatedly I beat the line on this book by 200 fucking dollars within an hour. That means something I'm sure.
 
Oksana

You may not even have to worry about it, do Aussie books have rules on tennis futures and withdrawals from tournaments?

Most offshore books consider ante post bets as all in and if a player withdraws from a tournament its graded as a loss even if he or she doesnt begin the tourney

I think wsex used to refund the wager, betfair and some others may have rules on non runners and dont consider them action.

I watched the Melzer /federer match and Jurgen had his trainer out there at one point and alot of people were saying his elbow was hurting him as well.

I just wonder if he will be fit enough to play in the open, the french can be a grueling affair on a player.
 
You can lay him to win at betfair (ie bet not to win). If you could get 1/150 on that (and the only current available odds are at 1/349, but you can get 150/1 to win) and you could get it matched/had the money you could risk $17,453.06 for a guaranteed $46.94 ... Not a great return locking up your money for nearly a month.
 
Oksana, why is it so important to back your play with math? You've already made the wager and whose business is it anyways how you choose to risk your money? If it wins great, if it loses it was a statistical certainty that it would lose.

Don't get caught up in the whole "gotta prove I'm worthy" crap.

Oksana put what you have at risk on that wager on the UNDER in tonight's Chicago/Vancouver game.
 
choo
you are beating a vig-free 5dimes market by less than 0.5%.
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That's it???

durito
You can lay him to win at betfair (ie bet not to win). If you could get 1/150 on that (and the only current available odds are at 1/349, but you can get 150/1 to win) and you could get it matched/had the money you could risk $17,453.06 for a guaranteed $46.94 ... Not a great return locking up your money for nearly a month.
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omfg I thought I'd made such a good bet. I did this about a month and a half ago on another tennis player (Mannarino) and made almost 7k. Knew he wouldn't win but my $50 on him at a bit over 200-1 paid off when I hedged out.

Guess it's back to the drawing board. :sad:
 
greg, it's all in. But there's no way Melzer will crap out because of his elbow right now. Murray was holding his knee yesterday and you saw that panned out today.

Wakky, you're right. Just trying to get smarter about this stuff but if anything, it just makes me feel much more dumb when I've been cruising along oblivious before this.
 
Oksana
That's it???



omfg I thought I'd made such a good bet. I did this about a month and a half ago on another tennis player (Mannarino) and made almost 7k. Knew he wouldn't win but my $50 on him at a bit over 200-1 paid off when I hedged out.

Guess it's back to the drawing board. :sad:
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that ticket pays 10k. You hedged out for 7k? :clueless: he must have became a huge favorite somewhere.
 
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