Hooligans Sportsbook

Coronavirus

  • Start date •
  • Replies
    3,032 Replies •
  • Views 195,473 Views
Follow
Tron
The truth is......I just don’t know, Dave.

We will know by August if the model was right or you were right.
Click to expand...

I don't either. And I'd certainly rather be wrong than get to say "I told you so" on the heels of 100K+ deaths.

But while I don't know what will happen, I do know that that model is flawed. (https://www.washingtonpost.com/heal...ts-estimates-downward-not-every-model-agrees/):
"Funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the IHME model embraces an entirely different statistical approach, taking the trending curve of deaths from China, and “fitting” that curve to emerging death data from U.S. cities and counties to predict what might come next.
For that reason, many experts saw IHME as overly optimistic when it was launched March 26. Few U.S. states or cities are taking action as drastic as what was adopted in Wuhan, China — the birthplace of the coronavirus pandemic — or even Northern Italy in locking down residents."

1. As mentioned earlier in this thread, using Chinese statistics may be problematic.
2. Even if China's numbers ARE 100% accurate, USA's lax quarantine does not even closely represent a total shutdown.

reno cool
I think you're doing it right Casper. It would be crazy if they didn't open up most stuff in May. By June 14th there will be no new deaths. Yes that's according to the model. But unless something truly unexpected happens, I'll go with the model. And if they refuse to open shit when there are no new deaths :dunno: they better find another disaster to propagate
Click to expand...

As someone who has consistently been willing to go against the grain, you of all people should not be accepting this hypothetical model at face value.
 
Matty
I think that a lot of stuff will reopen by summer, but sports? I really don't see it. All it takes is one player who needs to be hospitalized and it's game over until there's a vaccine.

There are thousands of pro athletes across all the major sports. The odds are high that one guy somewhere will have bad symptoms.
Click to expand...

This. Player unions are not going to accept players being put into insane living conditions (quarantined away from families at neutral locations, etc) or put in harm's way with no vaccine in sight. Consider how easily this disease would spread player-to-player in physical, close-proximity sports like football, basketball, and hockey; and how much energy exertion is used in these sports.

And from the league's side, PR perspective. What league wants to be the first to go against the grain, put its athletes in harms way, and risk the scenario Matty mentions? Until there is a vaccine that makes safety obvious, sports are probably out.
 
I read the article you linked. I've heard last couple days people saying that the peak could come in the summer. Maybe we have a different understanding what peak means. But there's nothing telling me that the #of new cases or new deaths can keep going up after mid April.
I've been watching that model since 1st posted here and it's been fairly accurate, consistent and helpful.
Spain and Italy numbers have been going down for a week, and our new cases are about at the same place they were 5 days ago.
I gotta think that with growing knowledge, they should be able to better treat patients over time. Model doesn't account for that.
Model has 12500 dead by today, actual number 10900. Feel like we should go well under the 80k.
 
reno cool
I read the article you linked. I've heard last couple days people saying that the peak could come in the summer. Maybe we have a different understanding what peak means. But there's nothing telling me that the #of new cases or new deaths can keep going up after mid April.
I've been watching that model since 1st posted here and it's been fairly accurate, consistent and helpful.
Spain and Italy numbers have been going down for a week, and our new cases are about at the same place they were 5 days ago.
I gotta think that with growing knowledge, they should be able to better treat patients over time. Model doesn't account for that.
Model has 12500 dead by today, actual number 10900. Feel like we should go well under the 80k.
Click to expand...

The reason those numbers are dropping in Italy and Spain are because of severe countrywide lockdowns; the same safety measure you've been mocking throughout this entire thread. The USA's population is much larger and its restrictions are much more lax. We shouldnt expect the same results. And you really think we'll keep this lockdowns in place through August, as your model suggests it must to be accurate, if the death rate plummets?

Again, I hope I'm wrong. But if I am it will almost exclusively be because we catch a huge break from the weather and this virus goes away during the summer.
 
survived unproted sex to die from a flu


corona virus looking at your immune system
 
Tron
Outstanding hedge, sir.
Click to expand...

How the fuck is this a hedge? We don't have any idea how this thing is going to react to a climate change. If this model said "assuming disease is seasonal" I wouldn't have a problem with it. It's saying its assuming full shutdown which we aren't even remotely close to.

This isn't a fucking game to me. I want this thing to go away. My fiance is a nurse, my dad is 72, and my mom is undergoing chemotherapy treatments. I'm not going to be bragging about how right I was if death tolls soar over 100K or making excuses about how I wasn't wrong if it doesn't. I will be celebrating and relieved that it's gone or devastated that it's still taking it's toll. I'm expressing my concerns about how serious this is, not trying to be cool and edgy and "right".
 
Tron
One definition of hedge is:

Limit or qualify (something) by conditions or exceptions

I think what you did was a hedge. I guess it’s possible I’m wrong. I just woke up and I slept like shit. Time to force myself to get on my bike.
Click to expand...

I'm telling you unequivocally that you are wrong. I'm not that guy.

I'm wrong quite often. I'm willing to admit when I am. I'm praying that I am here (or, at least whatever the atheist equivalent of praying is... hoping like hell, I guess.)

I can't stand people that do that shit. Was in a fantasy league that this team got autodrafted and the guy started by saying how this "wasn't his team because he didn't draft it". Then it started 4-0 and he was talking all this shit. And I made him declare whether it was his team or fucking not because I wasn't going to let him play both sides of that coin all season.

That, of course, was a stupid meaningless fantasy league. This is real life. I'm not trying to hedge to save face. I hope tomorrow the virus is gone and you can all laugh your fucking asses off at me for grossly overestimating this thing.

Enjoy your bike ride.
 
Vegas Dave
But if I am it will almost exclusively be because we catch a huge break from the weather and this virus goes away during the summer.
Click to expand...

Davie, I read this and was WTF before even following down to read Tron's response! I was seeing your side with your post until I got to this part! I hope your wrong too but not for your above reason!
 
MrMonkey
Davie, I read this and was WTF before even following down to read Tron's response! I was seeing your side with your post until I got to this part! I hope your wrong too but not for your above reason!
Click to expand...

I was just "thinking out loud", or whatever the posting equivalent to that is. It never even occurred to me that this would be read as some kind of cop out. This isn't something I just came up with out of the blue, it's a hotly debated/contemplated issue:

www.bbc.com

Will warm weather stop Covid-19 from spreading?

Some people hope that outbreaks of the new coronavirus will wane as temperatures rise, but pandemics often don’t behave in the same way as seasonal outbreaks.
www.bbc.com www.bbc.com
www.theguardian.com

Scientists ask: could summer heat help beat Covid-19?

Experts are watching carefully to see if this virus will follow the seasonal pattern of flu, but warn that the difference may be minor
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
www.nytimes.com

Warmer Weather May Slow, but Not Halt, Coronavirus (Published 2020)

Nature may help diminish the pandemic if aggressive measures to control the spread of infections continue, experts say. That doesn’t mean the virus won’t return.
www.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com

I quoted an article pointing out the issues with that model. I also took from the FAQ the model's assumptions of total and perfectly executed quarantine, which have not been followed. Again, if the model said "we are factoring in odds that coronavirus doesn't survive in summer climate" or "we are factoring in potential for advancements in vaccination or treatment", I'd say "oh okay we'll see". It doesn't. It's a flawed model to take at face value. That's all I said. I didn't say I had all the answers; in fact, the first sentence is me saying that I don't.
 
Fair enough Davey, but I believe you were talking to yourself and not just thinking out loud which lead to your posting! Unless of course you have another personality inside your head like me! Mine co-exist at the same time which it turn means I'm never talking to myself!
:mrmonkey::mrmonkey:
 
Last edited:
just wanna add again that the usefulness or effect of lockdowns on the spread is debatable. And we have been under a pretty strict lockdown here anyway. I really don't buy into this notion that people's "bad behavior " has been a problem. In fact people have been much more accepting, in general, than I would have imagined
 
Tron
abcnews.go.com

CDC director downplays coronavirus models, says death toll will be 'much lower' than projected

The CDC director said Monday that the death toll from the novel coronavirus will be “much, much, much lower” than models have projected.
abcnews.go.com abcnews.go.com
Click to expand...

www.cnn.com

US coronavirus death count likely an underestimate. Here's why | CNN

Health experts are warning that the national count of Covid-19 deaths in the United States could be underestimated as the coronavirus pandemic continues to spread.
www.cnn.com www.cnn.com

AKA we don't know, it's anyone's guess.
 
reno cool
just wanna add again that the usefulness or effect of lockdowns on the spread is debatable. And we have been under a pretty strict lockdown here anyway. I really don't buy into this notion that people's "bad behavior " has been a problem. In fact people have been much more accepting, in general, than I would have imagined
Click to expand...

I agree that weve done a pretty good job overall. Just not as locked down as other countries.

How is effect of lockdown on spread debatable? Diseases spread via contact with others. Limiting contact limits pace of spread. There really isn't any debate there.
 
reno cool
just wanna add again that the usefulness or effect of lockdowns on the spread is debatable. And we have been under a pretty strict lockdown here anyway. I really don't buy into this notion that people's "bad behavior " has been a problem. In fact people have been much more accepting, in general, than I would have imagined
Click to expand...

Reno, where I tend to agree w you on a majority of your points, this lockdown has been helpful.

If we continued to mingle the way we had been, it’s logic the virus would’ve spread.

Once again, I’m not a scientist, but that’s just logic....right?
 
You must log in or register to reply here.