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Coronavirus

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MrX
I don't think all the world's governments have chosen to tank their economies just to save lives. I think they've looked at the situation and decided that they could either tank the economy and likely keep the disease under some control or let the disease spread quickly and still have the economy devastated by the effects of that.
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I don't know if there are many independent governments around the world, aside from North Korea. The decision making comes primarily from one center of power. My general feeling is, that even though those in power don't directly create the disasters, they are very good at creating the conditions where a disaster is likely to happen, and very good at using a disaster to pursue their interests. (think 911)
Very possible that powerful people, or some faction thereof, is using the virus fear to reorganize things to their benefit, by burying millions of unneeded people, and weakening the rest into accepting any limits to their freedom.
What bothers me is how easy it is to scare people into accepting anything, as long as you give em the slightest reason and repeat it constantly in the media. They won't even ask for a legit debate, of weighing pros and cons.
 
Im still mostly a doubter. But one value that I believe doubters are NOT including in their equation analyzing the current chosen path is the value of experience we gain from this tact. While im not sure that for this virus and this time the collective decisions are right, im glad to have this "practice run" with a disease that ultimately only kills low value humans anyway. Someday there will be one that is as virulent as Coronavirus and as deadly as Ebola. Then we'll (or history) be glad to have learned what we did here.
 
reno cool
I don't know if there are many independent governments around the world, aside from North Korea. The decision making comes primarily from one center of power. My general feeling is, that even though those in power don't directly create the disasters, they are very good at creating the conditions where a disaster is likely to happen, and very good at using a disaster to pursue their interests. (think 911)
Very possible that powerful people, or some faction thereof, is using the virus fear to reorganize things to their benefit, by burying millions of unneeded people, and weakening the rest into accepting any limits to their freedom.
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Yeah we should all have independent government like North Korea. That should preserve the freedoms. It's the freedoms for the undisciplined idiots that is responsible for most of the problems. Most of the governments already left it late to impose restrictions. One's freedom is shit anyway if one is missing wawa coffee.
 
roguejuror
I've changed my mind like 4 times since the thread started, it's the only thing we can do

to be sure of anything with this thing would be foolish of me
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I feel the same way Roguey. Which is why I don't want to keep chatting with folks lecturing me on what I'm feeling and considering and not considering. They have no idea. I'm more than happy to admit I DON'T KNOW the answers, while others seem to be certain that their beliefs and preferred courses of action are correct.

One thing I DO know, however, is letting this thing go unchecked will be devastating. I'm not claiming it will be MORE devastating than if we don't let it go unchecked, because again I have no idea and there are millions of factors and variables in play.

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USAs lazy response and handling already has us on a terrifying trajectory, and now we are talking about just trying to "play through it"? Alright.

I don't know what we should do. We aren't prepared for anything like this. But I'm losing sleep over all scenarios, not just blindly touting mine.
 
Boner_18
Im still mostly a doubter. But one value that I believe doubters are NOT including in their equation analyzing the current chosen path is the value of experience we gain from this tact. While im not sure that for this virus and this time the collective decisions are right, im glad to have this "practice run" with a disease that ultimately only kills low value humans anyway. Someday there will be one that is as virulent as Coronavirus and as deadly as Ebola. Then we'll (or history) be glad to have learned what we did here.
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I just hope like hell we DO learn from this, worldwide. After the big earthquake in 94, Californians got super serious about earthquake preparedness.... for a few years, then just forgot about it.

Seeing as this time we cant reach any kind of consensus as to what the best course of action is, I'm not sure we will have a clear road map for more deadly outbreaks in the future. But I sure hope so.
 
small sample sizes, flawed data, small sample sizes flawed data. no longitudinal perspective.

before making a bet, many of us would decide if certain #'s were statisically significant or relevant or anomalies or random variation.

Epidemiologists and Scientists really don't even have enough data to really have a handle on this. The instructive numbers are varying from country to country, most of that is prob testing and data collection related, but some is also possibly due to differences in lifestyle and/or physiological differences across races. They are learning more everyday. With the focus of the ENTIRE world of smart people that are capable to learn and create solutions in this realm we have a steep learning curve.

the economy is destroyed either way. many families are in deep short term economic trouble, but we also know there will be unprecedented safety nets, grace periods, loan repayment freezes, social services stepping up, charities and churchs, even neighbors will step up. ect. We also know if a family of 4 suddenly had to deal with the death of the main bread winner and lung damage to the 2nd parental unit, they are way more fucked then if they were collecting unemployment and going to food pantry's for a year or two.

as even smaller sample sizes emerge in the United States and we come to grips with how the fattest, shittiest eating country in the whole world reacts to a virus that targets those exact people. We might realize that this virus might not just fuck up our retired folks, but possible create huge holes in all our industries and micro economies. Think of any business sector (except maybe nutrition and exercise) and you'll know young and old unhealthy fat fucks in those areas.

super early super small sample size data out of chicago out of 598 cases, below. not enough to draw conclusions on either way. maybe we take a few weeks and let the experts look closely at the data as it gets big enough to actually know what the fuck is going on. As we don't know how quickly this shit will mutate to another strain. its already mutated once. And we don't really have a smidgen of data on what happens to the people that "fully recover" as there have been cases of permanent lung damage and people possibly re catching this shit. maybe this shit kills 25k, but comes back next year before the vaccine and kills 5 million that have a weakend lung capacity following this years version, the year after that might kill 50 million. prob not, but no scientist would tell you that it's NOT possible, because we just don't know what this is, like we know what the flu or any other contagion is, due to years and years of data and research.




COVID-19 Case Characteristics for Chicago residents CHARACTERISTIC % TOTAL CASES1

Age (range 7 to 91 years) 0-17 2.0%
18-59 73.7%
60+ 24.3%
Under investigation 0%
Gender Female 48.2%
Male 50.7%
Under investigation 1.1%
Hospitalizations Never hospitalized 35.3%
Ever hospitalized2 13.7%
Under investigation 51.0%
 
Forgot to mention the real threat of catostrophic damage done to our health care systems and providers, if we "open things up" before they are even close to getting all the PPE that they are already running out of. This Virus has shown to be "dose dependent" Meaning the more you are exposed to it, the worse your outcomes are. In a few weeks, when that shit runs out before these private corporations get it made and shippd out, how bad will it be for these providers?

guess who is going to get a shit load of up close and personal interation with this virus in the coming weeks and months?

when our health care providers start getting sidelined or worse. So not only will the deaths sky rocket once we are out of hospital beds and ventilators we will be losing staff for the near and long term. this will not only affect people with CV but all people with any health care condition have far worse outcomes for years and years. Some hospitals are just gonna run out of money paying 10x the going rate for masks and trying to outbid other hospitals for the new crop of doctors and nurses. We'll see hospitals close, we'll see small city 911 emergency services be crippled, we'll see medication supply chains pinched.

I'd rather have carnival cruises shuttered and have to rebuild from the ground up, then lose workers in an industry that we are already underserved in, that it takes 4-10 years to be educated in, and years longer to be proficient in. Let's not just lose 10-25% of our 50-80 year old doctors all at once.
 
Boner_18
Computers > old people
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agreed in principle on this idea of education and in general. hell in my callous view dogs>>>>>>>>>>>any people. Dogs are ten times better. Give me great technology, a few good family and friends and lots and lots of dogs, i'm fine.

speaking of how awesome computers are. we should also look at computer models of how our various options for how to treat this problem will affect health insurance for the next decade for healthy people, people with cancer, people with heart attacks, people in bad car accidents.

again, lots of very complicated nuance to think through in all directions.
 
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