Hooligans Sportsbook

Bracket Tools

  • Start date •
  • Replies
    33 Replies •
  • Views 4,296 Views
Follow
djiddish98
Team 2ND RD % 2ND RD ML

6. Xavier 38.48% 160
5. Arizona 41.96% 138
5. Vanderbilt 43.73% 129
5. Kansas State 54.54% -120
6. St. John's 54.83% -121
3. BYU 55.49% -125
4. Wisconsin 56.79% -131
3. Connecticut 61.31% -158
4. Kentucky 66.32% -197
2. North Carolina 67.97% -212
3. Syracuse 68.74% -220
3. Purdue 68.84% -221
2. Florida 68.97% -222
4. Louisville 70.51% -239
4. Texas 71.70% -253
2. Notre Dame 73.71% -280
2. San Diego St 74.43% -291
Click to expand...

Updated 2nd round estimates:

BYU up, largely eating into st. John's chances.

Wisconsin and Kansas St. Fall.

I think NO for west virginia is a great bet right now.


Team 2nd RD ML 2ND RD ML
Xavier 37.20% 169
Vanderbilt 42.30% 136
Arizona 42.35% 136
West Virginia 48.38% 107
St. John's 51.18% -105
Kansas State 51.28% -105
Wisconsin 54.53% -120
BYU 61.91% -163
Connecticut 62.01% -163
Kentucky 65.26% -188
North Carolina 65.92% -193
Purdue 66.09% -195
Syracuse 66.97% -203
Florida 68.61% -219
Texas 70.12% -235
Louisville 70.15% -235
Notre Dame 72.35% -262
San Diego St 74.33% -290
Pittsburgh 79.00% -376
 
Herman
Just use KenPom's log5 analysis and pick the off lines

KenPom loves Utah State much more than Vegas does, for instance.
Click to expand...

I would argue that "Vegas" (or the line) is sharper than KenPom. KenPom is publicly available and likely already factored into the lines.

However, these 5 seeds look pretty weak this year (excluding arizona) - I would say you should be looking for atleast a 5 point fave for a decent 5 seed.
 
djiddish98
I would argue that "Vegas" (or the line) is sharper than KenPom. KenPom is publicly available and likely already factored into the lines.

However, these 5 seeds look pretty weak this year (excluding arizona) - I would say you should be looking for atleast a 5 point fave for a decent 5 seed.
Click to expand...

I don't think Zona is weak at all.

yeah, I do wonder how much models like Pomeroy's are factored into openers. and how much the bettors factor it into their betting
 
Here's some analysis based upon the value relative to the seed - I'm taking the historical seed win odds (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NCAA_Men's_Division_I_Basketball_Championship#First-round_games) and then comparing them to the ML.

I wouldn't auto-advance Missouri due to this analysis - but as a +1 dog, they are good value relative to their number 11 seed's historical performance.

Also, I just entered the seeds in by memory, so let me know if one is off.

EDIT: Whoops, had nova as a 10 and george mason as a 7. Fixed.

EDIT 2: Had UNLV as a 9 - bumping them up to an 8 actually improves their value, since 8's have lost more to 9s.

Team Seed Value
Missouri 11 16.54%
Gonzaga 11 15.43%
Michigan State 10 13.41%
Belmont 13 12.74%
UNLV 8 11.60%
Marquette 11 11.30%
Kentucky 4 11.06%
Clemson 12 10.49%
Utah State 12 8.60%
Washington U 7 7.95%
Richmond 12 7.02%
Cal Santa Barbara 15 6.79%
Purdue 3 6.72%
Wofford 14 6.51%
Florida State 10 5.83%
Akron 15 5.66%
Texas 4 4.83%
Northern Colorado 15 4.11%
Louisville 4 3.75%
Syracuse 3 3.24%
Penn State 10 2.65%
Arizona 5 2.56%
Old Dominion 9 1.82%
Long Island 15 1.73%
George Mason 8 1.45%
Bucknell 14 0.94%
Tennessee 9 0.75%
Michigan 8 -0.75%
Connecticut 3 -0.94%
Villanova 9 -1.45%
North Carolina 2 -1.73%
Butler 8 -1.82%
Memphis U 12 -2.56%
Temple 7 -2.65%
Indiana State 14 -3.24%
Morehead State 13 -3.75%
San Diego St 2 -4.11%
Oakland 13 -4.83%
Notre Dame 2 -5.66%
Texas A&M 7 -5.83%
BYU 3 -6.51%
Saint Peter's 14 -6.72%
Florida 2 -6.79%
Vanderbilt 5 -7.02%
Georgia 10 -7.95%
Kansas State 5 -8.60%
West Virginia 5 -10.49%
Princeton 13 -11.06%
Xavier 6 -11.30%
Illinois 9 -11.60%
Wisconsin 4 -12.74%
UCLA 7 -13.41%
St. John's 6 -15.43%
Cincinnati 6 -16.54%
 
Last edited:
You must log in or register to reply here.