reno cool
Fuck You Mocha Joe
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of course the theory is that the "market is incorrectly pricing" All handicapping theory is based on that
He's talking about taking every 1H under, blindly. CRIS takes $3K on NCAAF 1H totals (probably more for bowl games; I don't know). Not a giant amount, but we're not talking about Swedish Handball lines here. There is absolutely no way a market of that size is so inefficient that you could sustainably make money blindly betting every game.you're missing the point here.
of course the theory is that the "market is incorrectly pricing" All handicapping theory is based on that
Sorry, yeah. I was trying to point him toward an improved bottom line in the nicest way possible.Ah, I was wondering if that's what you were saying.
Well, yeah, I obviously agree with that assessment. With the only nitpick being that saying that an EV of -5 is twice as much as an EV of -10 is slightly confusing. It made it sound like you were talking positive values.
you're missing the point here.
of course the theory is that the "market is incorrectly pricing" All handicapping theory is based on that
He's talking about taking every 1H under, blindly. CRIS takes $3K on NCAAF 1H totals (probably more for bowl games; I don't know). Not a giant amount, but we're not talking about Swedish Handball lines here. There is absolutely no way a market of that size is so inefficient that you could sustainably make money blindly betting every game.
He's talking about taking every 1H under, blindly. CRIS takes $3K on NCAAF 1H totals (probably more for bowl games; I don't know). Not a giant amount, but we're not talking about Swedish Handball lines here. There is absolutely no way a market of that size is so inefficient that you could sustainably make money blindly betting every game.
the theory implies that 2nd half unders are undervalued in cases where 1st half overs came in. (and possibly 1st half unders themselves) Not the most unreasonable theory in the world. It is not a question of whether you pay more vig for placing more bets.
Fair enough; a bit of hyperbole on my part, I suppose. Even if the entire NCAAF half total market is inefficient in the case of bowl games, it is one of those "works until it doesn't" types of things. Your sole metric of success would be profit and loss; if you assume the entire market is inefficient, you couldn't use something like value vs the closing line to determine whether or not you still had an edge. Preaching to the choir, I realize.I tend to strongly agree with this statement, but not quite as strongly as to say "absolutely no way." These are games with a ton of public interest. One has to look no further than the superbowl to see some wildly inefficient market prices with huge limits. I wouldn't say it's absolutely impossible for the market on these big bowl games to inefficient enough.
Because I view them as coinflip bets, that's exactly what it is. Just my opinion, obv.the theory implies that 2nd half unders are undervalued in cases where 1st half overs came in. (and possibly 1st half unders themselves) Not the most unreasonable theory in the world. It is not a question of whether you pay more vig for placing more bets.