Bowl 1H Under system

[MikeyLo]

Take every 1H under. If it hits, you're done. If it loses, double up on 2H under. Anyone done anything like this before? Supposedly it's profitable.

 

[betplom]

I think It's been done before.

Mr Martin Gale started the whole thing.

 

[MikeyLo]

I'm trying it. It's only money, right?

 

[betplom]

I'm trying it. It's only money, right?

That's a healthy attitude, what could possibly go wrong?

 

[FairWarning]

I remember this last year or the year before doing pretty well. The big problem of course is the game losing 3.3 units if you lose both halves.

 

[MikeyLo]

That's a healthy attitude, what could possibly go wrong?

Exactly

 

[MikeyLo]

I remember this last year or the year before doing pretty well. The big problem of course is the game losing 3.3 units if you lose both halves.

Last 2 years according to this thread

http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=977362

 

[FairWarning]

playing under 34 mikey?

 

[MikeyLo]

playing under 34 mikey?

Yeah, I am. Already had the over for the game. Hell of a middle.

 

[MikeyLo]

Horrible beat in the first game. Fun.

 

[MikeyLo]

29-6 (+8.54 units)

 

[housepicks]

Well done

 

[bacon]

Jesus, nice work man.

 

[MikeyLo]

It's tough, the losses are really crushing. When it goes to the 2H you're sweating like crazy

 

[Gilmartin]

Congrats on a great bowl season. Your expected value is actually twice as much betting just the 1H and not chasing. I don't think anyone wants this place turning into the Handicapper Think Tank so I will leave it at that .

 

[MikeyLo]

Congrats on a great bowl season. Your expected value is actually twice as much betting just the 1H and not chasing. I don't think anyone wants this place turning into the Handicapper Think Tank so I will leave it at that .

Is that so? I'm not a real math guy, that's good to know. And I'm all for the occasional handicapper think tank thread.

 

[MrX]

I think many would love a handicapper think tank.

I would also be shocked if either method had a positive EV, so tell us what you're talking about!

 

[Gilmartin]

Assuming $100 bet size, average odds of -110:

Chase system
- About half the time, you'll win the 1H bet (+100)
- About a quarter of the time, you'll lose your 1H bet and win your 2H bet (+90)
- About a quarter of the time, you'll lose both bets (-330)

(100 + 100 + 90 - 330) / 4 = EV of -$10

Straight 1H
- About half the time, you'll win the 1H bet (+100)
- About half the time, you'll lose the 1H bet (-110)

(100 - 110) / 2 = EV of -$5

Neither method has a positive expectation unless you believe that the market is incorrectly pricing 1H totals as a whole. Maybe it is, but, in my opinion, it is far more likely the result of variance. And if the market is, in fact, incorrectly pricing 1H totals, how will you know when they figure it out and there is no longer an edge?