Hooligans Sportsbook

Baseball thread for the year

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I am going to keep my baseball picks in this thread. I am glad NBA and NHL are both winding down for the season as I am excited to concentrate on fewer sports.

I am really busy with work and been on the road alot so I don't have much time today for write ups, hopefully it slows down over the next month.

I had an atrocious french open and barely broke even in the ncaa tourney and nba and nhl playoffs, not worth the time I spent on it. Going to be conservative the rest of the baseball year until football starts. All plays 1 unit unless listed otherwise

Ray +133 5dimes

cincy -134 5dimes

Giants -175 5dimes

Phillies -1.5 +120 5dimes

Braves +109 betjam
 
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I thought the Sparks would come out on fire, they have to win this but San Antonio needs it as well for the playoffs. The stars are just the better team, poor game overall. I thought about the under but just taking the stars.

Stars +3.5 -110 risk 3.30
 
I cant believe this line on roddick, Ferrer hurt his foot but rain delay may make this one pretty tough to collect on if it hits. Ferrer retiring wouldnt surprise me, a dumb move kicking the wall.

roddick -153 5dimes risk 3.06
 
I have been looking over stats and writeups from both openers for Okie State and Arizona and both teams seemed to have no problem in their openers, though its hard to gain much from these opening games.

It sounds like Oklahoma State had a pretty easy time of it in its home opener last Saturday against Louisiana-Lafayette but they didnt cover the 38. They were up at half by 24 and thats not always a good sign for a cover, but Okie States QB Brandon Weedons' numbers were impressive, completing 24-of-39 attempts for 388 yards, he did give up 3 interceptions though.

The Cowboy puts up a massive 666 yards and there is no doubting this team will continue this year with that high octane style offense under their new offensive coordinator Todd Monken. I dont see much changing for the Cowboys , they return most of their starters like Blackmon and Weedon from the same team that beat Arizona in last Decembers Alamo Bowl 36-10.

Arizona only returns 10 starters from a team that seemed to fade as the season went on last year, they do have Qb Nick Foles who did look very impressive in their first game throwing for 412 yards, but the the Cowboys defense is on a whole different level than Northern Arizona and that O line for Arizona is all new this year. I think Foles is going to really struggle with a whole new offensive line and a quick okie state secondary, they ate him apart last year in the Alamo bowl, picking him off 3 times and allowing the Wildcats less than 50 yards in the air.

This is basically the same team that beat a more experienced Arizona team last year, Oklahoma State has the same offensive line as last years team to protect Weedon and basically returns the same Cowboy team that beat A and M ,Texas Tech, and Texas last year. I just don't see much reason to back the Wildcats even with the generous number here.

Oklahoma State -7 -130 first half risk 1.3
 
This one looks alot like yesterdays game where going over first game stats doesnt really give you much to work with in looking at these games. Missouri beat Miami of Ohio 17-6 and ASU pretty much demolished a weak UC Davis squad 48-14.

The Tigers looked pretty poor on offense and didnt get much of a running game or passing game going, you could look at the stats and say the defense for Missouri really won that game for them, forcing Miami Ohio into two turnovers.

Missouri starts a new QB and he did not look that impressive, he went 17/26 for 129 yards and only threw one interception but most of his passes were short ones, he only averaged 5 yards per completion. Missouri is banged up as well, RB Kendial Lawrence broke his leg, and another part of that four man running back rotation Marcus Murphy, is out for the season.

This is the big problem, Arizona state has a good run defense and a weak secondary, though the Sun devils will have no problem getting to the quarterback with Vontaze Burfict applying pressure.

Throw in a young qb and a very hostile environment with a "blackout" for tonights games, I can see why Arizona State is the popular pick on the boards. I like Brock Osweiler and last year ASU had some very close losses to some good teams like Wisconsin and Oregon. This is going to be a hell of an environment for that new QB to get his first road start in.

Arizona State (first half) -4 -128 risk 1.28 (5dimes)

Arizona State +4.5 / Stanford -7 / Alabama +4 / Virginia tech -4 (13.5 point teaser) (5dimes) -140 risk 2.8

Andy Murray/ Arizona State ml/ virginia tech ml/ stanford ml/ Alabama ml +135 risk 1
 
178-136 +23.10


Rays -150 risk 1.50

If someone had of told me just recently that the Boston Red Sox were in danger of not making the playoffs and the rays may catch them, I would of thought they were crazy. Right now the Rays are just coming off a loss that snapped their 5 game winning streak and falling four games behind in the wild card race to Boston.

Outside of the Tigers, the Rays are one of the hottest teams in baseball heading into September and the Red sox have a tough one today with Lackey on the mound and facing Romero.

The Rays send Davis to the mound, and the Rays have won 7 of their last 8 with him on the mound. I like Davis, he may not have lived up to his potential from last year but I disagree with sherwoods write up over at the rx where he states that this guy is an average pitcher.

Sherwood likes to look at x-era numbers and ground ball ratio and while Davis doesnt have the greatest numbers in many departments like these, he is 10-8 this year and is coming off a great game where he beat the Red sox and pitched a complete game. He is 3-2 with a 5.52 ERA in five starts against the Orioles this year, but looking at the Os pitcher tonight, the numbers turn gruesome.

Guthrie is not as as his record indicates, but thats not saying much when you are 7-17. Alot of people like to talk about when a pitcher is going to win 20 games, Guthrie is in danger of losing 20 games, in fact he is about to reach the record of another Oriole, Daniel Cabrera, who was the last pitcher to lose 18 games in a season in the mlb back in 2007.

Pitching for the Orioles is a dream come true. LOL
 
178-137 +21.60

Braves -114 risk 2.28 Minor throwing the ball well, he is 2-0 with a 3.74 ERA over his last four and the Braves are running close with the cardinals for the wild card. Nolasco coming off about 6 straight outings where he is giving up alot of hits, good numbers for the Braves in Florida as well.

Diamondbacks -1 -190 risk 3.80 Alot of juice for a run line but Arizona needs to win these with Kennedy on the mound and facing a weak Pirates they need to win this series and put the Giants away. They actually have a tough schedule with three meetings with the giants this month and with a 5 game lead over San Fran and Kennedy looking for his 20th win, this looks like a good spot.

Yankees -1.5 -125 risk 1.25

NFL Giants -4 -165 risk 3.90
 
Thanks Mr. M and Kato, good luck my friends!

182-139 +23.30


Playoff time! This early game is a strange one to call, irregardless of the texas stats in december and wilsons numbers lately, I know the popular opinion on the boards for texas but the Rays are putting up some incredible numbers in September as well. Tampa Bay is off one of the most remarkable runs to the wild card in recent memory. They were actually trailing Boston by 10 games at the start of September and in the final game of the regular season they were down 7-0 in the eighth inning vs. the Yankees, and all Boston had to do was close out the ninth. It was an incredible comeback for the Rays in the final game of the season and for the whole month of September.

To top it off, the Rays are sending a rookie who is only making his second career start. I have heard some great things about Matt Moore, he has a fast ball at 95-96 and up, supposedly has three really good pitches he can turn to and isnt prone to walks or any sort of wildness. He has some incredible numbers coming out of the minors, and is supposedly is up there with Strasburg as a future great but this is one hell of a stage to make your debut. He has only pitched 9 1/3 innings this season in the majors and is facing the hottest team in baseball right now.

Texas numbers in September have been phenomenal , winning 19 of 25 games and going on a 14-2 run in the final stages and and on a 6 game win streak, I love it when team pour it on and go into the playoffs hitting the ball and playing great ball like the rockies did in 2007, in some way teams like the Phillies may have been hurt clinching so early. Texas at home has been unstoppable, (52-29) and they ar 8-2 in CJ Wilsons last 10 starts. Wilson just beat Tampa Bay twice in September and has a 2.07 ERA in 21 2/3 innings against Tampa Bay.

I know there is alot of hype about Moore , but facing the hottest team in baseball in the playoffs is not a great way to get your second start in the majors.

Texas -1 -137 risk 4.11
 
182-140+ 19.19

Great 4 unit call on Texas. LOL.

Brewers -1 -115 risk 3.45

Phillies -182 risk 1.82

Cowboys(nfl) -2 -117 risk 1.17

Saints -6 -138 risk 1.38

Texans -3 -130 risk 1.30

Ravens -4 -117 risk 2.34

Bears -6 -118 risk 2.36
 
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