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Anybody here invest in the Tour de France?

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The tour is a couple of weeks away, and I am thinking about putting a futures bet on Alberto Contador -160 at Pinny.

Either the Tour de France or the hot dog eatting contest (nathan's) starts my investment season every year, and for the last 4 years I have cleaned up from the tour investments that I have.

I think the odds will get more chalk for Alberto as the days come closer, so I was going to put a large bet down now, and then hedge if I see some contenders come along.

As for daily plays, if it is a flat stage with a sprint finish, don't fuck around, just put the money on Cavendish and eat the huge amount of chalk that comes with it.

I am also going to take Cavendish for the green this year, as I felt that he was fucked over last year and he remembers the taste of defeat.
 
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I went ahead and tossed another $500 on Contador to win the tour this year at (-195). I feel that if I wait until after this Saturday's stage, they may take it down at Pinny, and I only had a dime on the eventual winner of the race. With the long odds, and Cavendish eatting $250 from me already, I needed to make up some more winnings as long as Contador does indeed win.

As far as Cavendish goes, I laid off from fading him yesterday because after I took another look at the sprint, he didn't have as good of a lead out as the petachhi dude, so I thought I would give him another chance today. He did come through, but really he needs to win tomorrow as well, or I will fade him in the winning 3.5 stages category even with the large price at pinny. If he doesn't win tomorrow, the price will either get ridiculously large to bet the under, or they will take down that prop entirely.
 
It looks like Cavendish has a little left in the tank. I agree that the lead outs for him have been a little on the contested side, and the other teams are taking advantage of team HTC Columbia by sitting back at letting them do all the work during the sprinting stages. This is good news however for me because I don't think cavendish would have made it over the mountains this weekend if he didn't win a couple of times, and Petachhi will probably drop out of the race this weekend, I predict that he may try Saturday, but he won't be there for Sunday when the cat 1 climbs come around. Now all I need is a couple of more wins out of Cavendish, and I can break even on him or the year. If he would get his shit together, and have his team keep a close eye on Thor and a couple of others in the Green Jersy competition, he could climb back into that race as well, but I don't think they have the desire at this point, and Thor still has quite the lead on Cavendish.

I'm not looking for Andy Schleck to make too many moves in the mountains this weekend just yet. If anything, I'm looking for team Radio Shack to take up the control and put the pressure on the others in an effort to get old Lance some time back.
 
I have a couple of "Funzi" plays tomorrow for stage 7.

Andy Schleck (+157) for $25 to beat Alberto Contador to the finish line in stage 7

Ok here is what is likely to happen between these 2. They will be almost locked at the wheels the entire time along with Lance Armstrong, Bradley Wiggins, Cadel Evans, Ivan Basso, and a few others. Any one of them is likely to attack, but they will surely be trailed by the others. Then they will all come to the line together, and as long as they get the same time, they won't give a flying fuck who passes the line first.

Bradley Wiggins (+109) for $25 to beat Ivan Basso to the finish line in stage 7

Same deal as above, but wiggins is a better climber than Basso, and if by chance the tempo gets really high, Basso will be kicked off the back.

Lance Armstrong (+160) for $35 to beat Cadel Evans to the finish line in stage 7

As far as the tour is concerned Cadel Evans is in the lead right now. Never mind what you see in the actuall standings. This means that tomorrow team BMC will be defending Cadel Evans' position against all of the others that I have mentioned above. Look for Lance's team to mount an attack to see if they can get some much needed time back against just about all the dudes mentioned above.
 
I can't ein any of my stage plays this year, not a one has gone my way yet.

so for tomorrow's stage 13, I will take Petacchi (+154) for $100 to beat Cavendish to the line. Basically I think that the cat 3 climb right before the finish will cause a breakaway to take place, and Cavendish won't care about the sprint up to the finish for the green jersey.

I also dumped another $500 on Contador (-324) to win it overall. From this day forward, I will dump $500 on this dude for as long as Pinny lets me do it. Contador winning is pretty much a foregone conclusion so load up and eat the chalk sandwich.
 
I just can't pick a winner on any stage events this year. Cavendish just eeekkked out a 2nd place just ahead of Petacchi.

Oh well, I am still adding $500 a day on Contador to win the entire race until they take it down over at Pinny.

I put my daily $500 on Contador (-400) to win the whole thing, and will continue to do so until Pinny takes it down. This is about a close to a lock as it gets. Contador will need to be caught with some steroids, or possible fall off his bike to lose at this point. Watching the race shows that he looks better climbing than Schleck, and I believe that Schleck will faulter in the mountain stages. Furthermore, Schleck really needs to press his lead out if he wants to win, Contador will beat him in the time trial by atleast a minute next Saturday.
 
Here we go with today's investment on Contador (-538) for $500. The more this goes on the longer the odds get. Probably due to me tossing in $500 a day on Contador. Anyway, I also took another $500 on Cavendish to win over 3.5 Stages in the tour. Basically he has 3 and needs just 1 more for me to win. He will have Friday and Sunday to get me the money, and lately he has been good in sprint finishes. So at (-202) I figure he will take atleast 1 of the 2 sprint finishes left in the tour.
 
The tour took the day off today, but I am still plugging away at it with my daily $500 on Contador (-508). I am also placing $250 on Schleck (-108) tomorrow to climb up to the finish faster than contador. Hopefully Schleck wins and actually takes the yellow jersey tomorrow so that Contador's odds go down a little for the time trial.
 
Of course I caught all of the action today. I have a couple of wagers that were resolved today, and I have a shit load of investments to watch.

Andy Schleck did beat Contador to the line today, well actually I think that Contador kind of gave him the win today. Not a bad thing to do since Andy paced him all the way up the mountain. Anyway, I win when Andy Schleck crossed the line first today in two ways. First Schleck to beat Contador up to the line, and then my wager from around a month ago with Schleck beating contador in the king of the mountains. As the day started, they were tied in the KOM standings, and since schleck beat contador, he gets more points.

Also in the last couple of days, Ivan Basso has been falling apart quicker than Cadel Evans has been falling apart so it looks like that wager will go my way as well. for a while there I had writen it off.

Anyway, tomorrow I will put $100 on Cavendish (-110) to win the stage outright, and if he does, he will win over 3.5 times this year and bring me the money.

I also put my daily $500 on contador to win outright. Yeah this is the biggest lock of the year, and now the odds reflect it at (-2000) ouch, but it is still free money so I'll take it.
 
OK, I'm starting to see some return on investment today with Cavendish winning his 4 th stage, and today's stage. Both of which I put investments on.

For tomorrow, I really think that Contador will be trying to win the stage. He has the yellow all sewn up like I have been telling you for the last week, and I hope you took advantage of it before Pinny took it down today, but he hasn't won a stage yet. The overall winner really likes to win at least 1 stage, and I think it has only happened a couple of times when the overall winner didn't win a stage. With that in mind, I am investing $100 on Cancellera not to win tomorrow (-122). I was looking for Contador odds, but they weren't there, they have a head to head with Contador and Denis Menchov, but Contador is 2 to 1, and I really think he wins it anyway, so bet on Cancellera not to win.
 
Yeah, it has been on VS for the last 3 weeks. The looney people really only come out for the end of the mountain stages so they can run with the cyclist and look like freaks.

Yes bread, I am cleaning up again this year although I think my rate of return will be lower than last year. I won't know for sure until tomorrow, but I will only lose a couple of long term wagers. I was surprised today by the time trialing of Schleck. It seems that he has gotten much better at it, and for a while there I saw my giant investment in Contador slipping away.
 
Well with 1 more day left I invested in Cavendish (-200) to win Stg 20 for $100, and Petacchi (-139) for $100 to beat Dean to the line tomorrow on Stg 20.

I cut in my plays from the SBR spreadsheet that I use to keep track of my wagers. I haven't added in the contador investments to win yet because he could get shot tonight and I would lose. so I guess I actually have to wait until he does cross the line tomorrow in Paris.

 
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