2024 MLB First 5 Experiment

[Matty]

Adding

NYM -105 (I did actually bet the Mets this time )
CLE +106

So I did make a change to this approach. I just realized that FanGraphs has a separate WAR table that extrapolates pitcher performance to 200 innings pitched. It's not perfect for the sake of this first-5 experiment, but it's (probably) a better performance predictor for relief pitchers that get used as starters.

 

[Matty]

YTD 14-6-4 +6.66u

Thursday May 2

SFG -105
TEX -190
NYM -105 (I did actually bet the Mets this time )
CLE +106

 

[roguejuror]

4 out of the 6 games, I love this model

 

[Matty]

Lines are all over the place at bookies. Looks like this might become my bread and butter.

 

[roguejuror]

I knew it, hockey player props is where it's at with hockey

 

[Matty]

1 win 1 push 1 loss so far

Pressure is now on the Guardians to give us a winning day

 

[Boner_18]

I knew it, hockey player props is where it's at with hockey

O/u goals or o/u points was one of my main arbs before I got limited at the onshore books.

Lines were so bad.

 

[Matty]

YTD 14-6-4 +6.66u

Thursday May 2

SFG -105 🟡
TEX -190
NYM -105
CLE +106

2-1-1 +1.01u

YTD 16-7-5 +7.67u

 

[Matty]

YTD 16-7-5 +7.67u

Friday May 3

MIL +104
CIN -120
PHI -158
PIT -170
NYM +106
CLE -180
KCR -120

 

[Matty]

Adding

STL -250
SDP -115
LAD -115

 

[Matty]

YTD 16-7-5 +7.67u

Friday May 3

MIL +104
CIN -120
PHI -158
PIT -170
NYM +106
CLE -180
KCR -120
STL -250
SDP -115
LAD -115

 

[Matty]

I'm slightly uncomfortable with the amount of correlation between full game and first 5 bets. I basically have six 2-unit bets today.

#GAMBOL

 

[roguejuror]

I'm slightly uncomfortable with the amount of correlation between full game and first 5 bets. I basically have six 2-unit bets today.

#GAMBOL

that's irrational fear, don't worry about it

 

[Matty]

This is going poorly.

 

[Matty]

YTD 16-7-5 +7.67u

Friday May 3

MIL +104 🟡
CIN -120 🟡
PHI -158
PIT -170 🟡
NYM +106
CLE -180
KCR -120 🟡
STL -250
SDP -115
LAD -115

4-2-4 +1.2u

YTD 20-9-9 +8.87u

No idea how this ended up being a winning day! It had the texture of a catastrophe.

 

[Matty]

YTD 20-9-9 +8.87u

Saturday May 4

NYY -160
STL -166
CHC -128
TOR -155

 

[Matty]

Adding

SFG +155
LAA +115
NYM -105
LAD -195

 

[roguejuror]

This is going poorly.