I can easily see Avatar winning. All the criticisms you can make about its cliched plot and whatnot, you could also have said about Titanic (which won).
In fact Avatar has more to say about the human condition than Titanic. At least Avatar has a bit of a message about human short-sightedness whereas Titanic was just about a boat that everyone already knew sank, sinking - with a tacked on love story.
That aside, there is the competition. There are good movies but no big wow factor. But then again Shakespeare In Love won Best Picture. Talk about no wow factor.
The Academy is retarded. I'm leaning towards betting Avatar.