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I haven't seen Hurt Locker yet. I guess that's why the field is getting bet down so much. Avatar is cartoony. It doesn't really say anything meaningful about the human condition like a Best Picture film should. Sure, it's a visual masterpiece, but the plot is anything but original or innovative.
 
I can easily see Avatar winning. All the criticisms you can make about its cliched plot and whatnot, you could also have said about Titanic (which won).

In fact Avatar has more to say about the human condition than Titanic. At least Avatar has a bit of a message about human short-sightedness whereas Titanic was just about a boat that everyone already knew sank, sinking - with a tacked on love story.

That aside, there is the competition. There are good movies but no big wow factor. But then again Shakespeare In Love won Best Picture. Talk about no wow factor.

The Academy is retarded. I'm leaning towards betting Avatar.
 
Avatar had a love story too. However, it wasn't nearly as compelling as Titanic's. I mean a human fell in love with and "married" a 12' blue broad. Come on. Titanic was a time piece. It said a lot about class struggles at that point in time and the characters were actually developed. Avatar is a good versus evil, good prevails rehash for the 275437th time in cinematic history.
 
Titanic = Kate Winslet's tits! Deserving Best Picture winner indeed!!


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I am not saying Avatar should be Best Picture. I am just saying I can see it happening to the point where I am leaning towards betting it.

They gave Best Picture to freaking Lord of The Rings. Avatar would be a step up in my mind.
 
wtf? I've never seen it! Tell me more!


Well it's a Jane Campion movie. I give her credit for being artsy rather than formulaic but she is not a personal favorite of mine.

As in The Piano, another Jane Campion movie, this co-stars Harvey Keitel. To the best of my recollection, he keeps his wiener off camera this time.

Kate Winslet plays a horny, loony chick who has been taken in by an eastern religious sect and Keitel is a deprogrammer hired by her family.

That all sounds a little more interesting than I recall the movie being. But Campion does have a knack for getting people nekkid and you can see some of the results in the screencaps I posted.