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2024 MLB Parlay Thread

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mlb parlay 20240508
 
Matty
I'd be down to do it, to prove a point (that parlays actually increase your edge, assuming the plays are +EV)

I'd do two-teamers and compare results with betting single games.
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I'm assuming you're not already doing it because you wanted a much larger sample size of the results of your current model?
 
Tron
I'm assuming you're not already doing it because you wanted a much larger sample size of the results of your current model?
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Yes. I'm still far from being certain of my model, although it's looking encouraging so far, especially if I remove the first two weeks that used pre-season projections (but that's probably cherry-picking).

But yeah I think I'll do it for real, just $1 two-teamers to keep track of real-world results.
 
Matty
I'd be down to do it, to prove a point (that parlays actually increase your edge, assuming the plays are +EV)

I'd do two-teamers and compare results with betting single games.
Click to expand...
What math is this based on?

Can't you run sims to prove/disprove it?

House edge is known to be higher on parlays, isn't it? Would be very curious to see how edge was increased with them.
 
The parlay math is very simple. The tricky part is consistently finding +EV plays.

If you bet 100 to win 101 on a coin flip, and you're allowed to parlay two coin flips at the same odds:

  • For straight bets you'll profit $1 per two bets ($1 profit over $200 risked = $0.50 edge)
    • Bet 1 - Risk $100, lose $100
    • Bet 2 - Risk $100, win $101
  • For two-team parlays you'll profit $4 every four bets ($1 edge)
    • Coin flip #1 loses, coin flip #2 loses - you lose $100
    • Coin flip #1 loses, coin flip #2 wins - you lose $100
    • Coin flip #1 wins, coin flip #2 loses - you lose $100
    • Coin flip #1 wins, coin flip #2 wins - you win $304 (2.01*2.01)
It obviously works the other way if your bets are -EV. The "house edge" is indeed higher on parlays when your bets are -EV. If you're not certain your bets are any good, don't parlay them.
 
Aight let's do this. So I played 2-team round robins for 7 games that were still +EV at FanDuel as per my model. Comparing results with straight bets should be straightforward - add up the winners and deduct $1 per losing parlay (all the parlays are above +100 today - that might not always be the case)

mlb round robin 20240508
 
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Matty
The parlay math is very simple. The tricky part is consistently finding +EV plays.

If you bet 100 to win 101 on a coin flip, and you're allowed to parlay two coin flips at the same odds:

  • For straight bets you'll profit $1 per two bets ($1 profit over $200 risked = $0.50 edge)
    • Bet 1 - Risk $100, lose $100
    • Bet 2 - Risk $100, win $101
  • For two-team parlays you'll profit $4 every four bets ($1 edge)
    • Coin flip #1 loses, coin flip #2 loses - you lose $100
    • Coin flip #1 loses, coin flip #2 wins - you lose $100
    • Coin flip #1 wins, coin flip #2 loses - you lose $100
    • Coin flip #1 wins, coin flip #2 wins - you win $304 (2.01*2.01)
It obviously works the other way if your bets are -EV. The "house edge" is indeed higher on parlays when your bets are -EV. If you're not certain your bets are any good, don't parlay them.
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That makes sense, but this is based on true odds paid calculation, right? Do online sportsbooks actually pay true odds on two-teamers? Maybe I'm thinking of it incorrectly as someone who has mostly bet in Vegas at non-true odds.
 
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