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Ponies - Belmont, whatever

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choo

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Is there even really a market for this shit? Seems like the (super fucking corrupt) 'you get it at the odds it goes off at' policy makes track odds meaningless except right before the race. Haven't found limits higher than 1k offshore.
 
I've seen the odds change as the horses make the first turn...

I would imagine that you'd have to have a variability threshold in the event that the odds change dramatically (you'd also have to factor in your own wager which could change the odds). Races with enormous pools like the Triple Crown events aren't effected like the smaller tracks though. You probably won't see precipitous changes in odds today.

I really don't know that much about horse racing, but I've looked at it briefly.
 
MonkeyF0cker
I've seen the odds change as the horses make the first turn...

I would imagine that you'd have to have a variability threshold in the event that the odds change dramatically (you'd also have to factor in your own wager which could change the odds). Races with enormous pools like the Triple Crown events aren't effected like the smaller tracks though. You probably won't see precipitous changes in odds today.

I really don't know that much about horse racing, but I've looked at it briefly.
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lol regulation ftw.

I used to be under the impression the track was most efficient but I was blinded by the handle. now I have no clue and I hate uncertainty because I'm a degen and have to know so I can bet on some fucking ponies.
 
so basically they could change after turn 1 and just say they are adjusting for the last second action. horse wagering is so much more corrupt than sports wagering yet it is totally legit. i hate this country.
 
On big races like the Triple Crown series or the Breeders Cup, what you get 4 or 5 minutes out is generally what you will get at post time simply because of the size of the pools being bet into. With the day to day grind what you see 10 or even 5 minutes out is almost irrelevant to where the price will end up. MF is correct in why the odds change after the race. Bets are being taken right until the gate opens, and most tracks update odds on a 30 second interval so if the previous refresh was the second before the gate opens, the final update may not occur until 30 seconds into the race, which can look bad to the average player. Horse racing most assuredly has it`s corrupt features, most specifically with trainers and drugs, but the changing of the odds after the race starts isn`t one of them.
 
On a typical day at the races it is just sharp money vs. sharp money. Lots of robo batch bettors and the like. There are a handful of days where there is more stupid money in the pools and today is one of them. That Animal Kingdom is quite the impressive stretch runner. Would maybe consider taking a fresh horse though.
 
cobra_king
On big races like the Triple Crown series or the Breeders Cup, what you get 4 or 5 minutes out is generally what you will get at post time simply because of the size of the pools being bet into. With the day to day grind what you see 10 or even 5 minutes out is almost irrelevant to where the price will end up. MF is correct in why the odds change after the race. Bets are being taken right until the gate opens, and most tracks update odds on a 30 second interval so if the previous refresh was the second before the gate opens, the final update may not occur until 30 seconds into the race, which can look bad to the average player. Horse racing most assuredly has it`s corrupt features, most specifically with trainers and drugs, but the changing of the odds after the race starts isn`t one of them.
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thanks. my sentence on corruption and the hypothetical weren't meant to be connected. When I say it's corrupt I"m referring to the fact that the track cannot, under any circumstances, lose any money given this rule. it is almost robbery given the track vig.

The reason I made the post: are track odds efficient, in your opinion? Is all this influx of cash from idiots or are the pros, as a whole, having a significant affect because there is a bigger pool and they can get down more without moving the line themselves?
 
Track odds are not efficient at all in my opinion. Which obviously is a good thing in order to overcome the incredible take out that many tracks insist on continuing on with. On a day like today I believe it is two fold. I believe you get more square money that enhances the pools, which also enables the pros to get a better situation for themselves in that they can get down more if they wish without affecting the odds substantially. That`s the beauty about days like today. You have more of a handle on what type of price you will get, plus you will get a much larger pool to bet into. But to reiterate my original point, track odds are wildly inefficient which helps with the fact that you don`t always need to know the exact price you get at post time.
 
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