Wimbledon efficiency

[MonkeyF0cker]

I would assume that Pinny would have some pretty efficient lines for Wimbledon. Has anyone looked into past results for ATP/WTA on Pinny? I lost about 75% of my Betonline balance this morning after going 3-18 on what were (all but one) +EV wagers against the Pinny close. Pretty ugly.

 

[betplom]

Monkey, perhaps you should stay away from tennis wagering.

Just a thought.

Pal.

PS: Canadian Football season starts soon - you like football, right?

 

[MonkeyF0cker]

Losing streaks happen. I'm just wondering if I should continue to look at Pinny to judge my wagers in tennis.

 

[rito]

lol. i was meaning to get up and check tennis lines there but I slept all morning instead.

i don't have any data, but i've done ok on tennis (obviously all just line shopping). i'd guess you just got unlucky. obviously they get more volume as the tourney advances, but pinny gets a lot of tennis action, they should be pretty sharp. what were the pinny limits before match time?

 

[rito]

Looks like the limits are still pretty small, like 4k full and 1,500 overnight. I would have still bet anything +ev, but certainly not fully kelly or even half. Buy the round of 16, the limits are more like 20-50k.

 

[Matty]

I wouldn't go against the market in tennis (or most other sports that the drooling US public isn't betting.)

 

[MonkeyF0cker]

I'm betting 1/10 Kelly on Betonline just to test the waters for now - thankfully. I'm wondering if Betfair may be more efficient than Pinny. Maybe I'll just wait for the later rounds then. But yeah, it was a slaughterhouse this morning.

 

[rito]

Did you look at betfair this morning?

They should be very close. Pinny certainly monitors them, they used to just copy everything from there. I'd be surprised though if anything was too different.

Pinny fucked up their software once a couple years ago on some tennis market and a line that wasn't up yet displayed publicly: Check betfair.

Lol.

These days though I think they do enough volume that they are probably sharper, the couple of sharp tennis players I know play mostly at pinny and rarely at betfair because of the commissions and premium charge.



I think you just ran bad.

 

[MonkeyF0cker]

LOL. Nice. Yeah. I was just wondering if there was maybe a more efficient book for tennis. I forgot about the Betfair commission. I wonder how much that has effected their markets.