What to look for when betting Kentucky games this year....

[Herman]

Opponents ability to draw fouls/get to the free throw line.

Kentucky really only has about 6 good players, and only like 9 total players on their roster this year. One player is currently ineligible and this system should not be used if they get that player eligible and playing...

In Kentucky's tough games this year, they jumped out on Washington early and got up by 15, then had foul trouble, and blew the lead in the first half and were down at halftime. In the second half they stayed out of foul trouble and ended up winning the game.

Against UConn they were in foul trouble from the get go and just fell apart, got blown out of the gym.

Against UNC, they were up 8, then 4 guys fouled out so they had basically the last 5 guys on their roster at the end of the game, and ended up losing by 2 in a PK game.



Notre dame this year is ranked 13th in the number of free throws per field goals attempted, and in ND's 3 toughest games they drew 22, 27, and 28 fouls against. UK only has about 20 fouls to give before they start losing guys left and right to foul outs. UK's power ratings are a bit flawed because when they aren't in foul trouble they will cover, when they get in foul trouble they won't cover.

Notre Dame +5 is the play tonight.

 

[kato]

good writeup herman

 

[Bread]

Polly/Juror....front page? Nice writeup Hermy.

 

[RayRay]

I just look for blue guys in the crowd...

 

[wal66]

I respect a guy who can differentiate between being a fan and being a gambler. Too many aren't able to honestly separate themselves from their bias. Good job understanding the difference between the loyalties to your heart and you bankroll.

 

[Herman]

I respect a guy who can differentiate between being a fan and being a gambler. Too many aren't able to honestly separate themselves from their bias. Good job understanding the difference between the loyalties to your heart and you bankroll.

I'm still a UK fan but not as big as I once was. It's unhealthy to care about a team so much, I've found.

 

[Tron]

I used to watch Brandon Knight tearing it up as a freshman in high school @ Pine Crest. Dude is a badass.

/adds nothing to discussion

 

[Herman]

Pine Crest is supposedly a super smart school too.....he's been struggling though a little bit

 

[Tron]

Herman you still like ND @ +5?

 

[Tron]

I like this angle and the Hermanators analysis. I'm on it @ +5

 

[Archie]

very astute observation and analysis. you could couple this with tracking teams that foul alot.... and most importantly if you could get info on the refs.... figuring outwhich refs call alot of fouls?. As Kentucky traditionally doesn't shoot free throws well. I'm wondering if the fouling trend will be coached away as the season goes on.... but I doubt it, as Calipari isn't much of a coach really, but just a smooth guy that knows how to recruit, get $ to players on the down low, and let them play monkey ball kinda guy

 

[Enigma]

http://forum.sbrforum.com/players-t...ntucky-sharp-inthewhat-basketball-season.html

 

[Tron]

COMMON ONE TIME

never easy boyzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

 

[Tron]

Who's the cunt on Notre Dame that just missed two FT's with 3 minutes left?

I hope he dies choking on thick pesto.

 

[Archie]

fuk notre dame and their shallow bench

 

[Tron]

Another missed FT by ND

 

[Tron]

Eat shit and die Notre Dame.

Hermy if they bang some FT's down they would have covered.

 

[Archie]

fukin shit. nice game by UK