Wal's Week #2 Plays

[wal66]

Good opening week but the journey has just begun. This is the last week of me doing plays on my own. Next week I will be able to run the numbers through my program and go from there.

Much of what I am playing this week are based on performances from this previous weekend while others are what I believe to be line value. Now understand, I am no line expert by any means so dont put much stock in what I assume to be value or how I might anticipate lines to move.

Georgia @ South Carolina -2.5

We have a ranked Georgia team at an unranked South Carolina as an underdog. We have players on both squads in doubt due to suspensions they may or may not still be serving. We, ok, I have a team that I have already promoted as being a serious contender to win the SEC East this year. Which ever team comes out victorious in this game they will be sitting in a very good spot and the loser facing a very difficult road ahead in terms of playing for the SEC Title.

I had hoped that Georgia would be favored in this spot but my wishes obviously werent granted by the lines makers. I figured it would be Georgia favored by 3 and that would give me a chance at not only playing my first dog of the season but a ML play as well. Well thank you very much Vegas, I have to continue my favorites run of selections.

South Carolina 24-17

Western Kentucky @ Kentucky -23.5

Kentucky looked pretty good in their win against an improved Louisville team this past weekend. Cob and company possess some serious explosiveness and even looked to play at a little better flow and more discipline.

Much of this dame will depend on how Kentucky decides to play. If they want to continue to set the tempo and increase players confidence before opening with SEC play then they win this game easy by 31+. I am hoping that is what the Wildcats are planning on doing.

Kentucky 49 -10

Rice +2 @ North Texas

Look, I dont have a good reason for betting this game or these teams. I did catch a little of the Rice game on Saturday and saw a team with a lot of scrappiness but they are still Rice and there are better teams to place wagers on.

My initial instinct was that Rice would win this game and be favored and since they werent I thought I had a value here. Might be completely wrong but I like Rice to win the game outright.

Rice 27-17

Florida St +8.5 @ Oklahoma

When I first saw this line it was 10 but by the time my book offered it 8.5 is where they had it. I anticipated the line would move down through the week to around 7 so at 10 I would have loved it but at 8.5 Im still happy.

I have already talked about this game. It all boils down to just how disciplined FSU plays. If they play error free football they win this game outright. They simply have too much speed and too much talent all over the field.

I want to grab the brass ring and go for the ML but I will play it safe and take the points even though I truly see an FSU victory here.

Florida St 31-17

Miami +9.5 @ Ohio St

I am guilty at times of allowing my personal feelings influence my decision making. I have gotten better over the years but it still happens from time to time. It is influencing this game as well. I dont like Miami much but I really dont like Ohio St.

Now just because I dont like a team doesnt mean that I would allow that to be my sole reasoning for placing a wager on them. In fact if that were my only reasoning I would definitely pass. There is more though, I really feel Miami is the better talented team overall, I think the team speed of Miami will be too much of a problem for Ohio St and I just simply feel that if Miami can somehow win this game it is the trigger that catapults them all the way to the promise land this season.

Ok, I got a little carried away there but I really like their chances here. Just like with FSU though I am definitely taking the points but really I dont think they matter much. In this game Miami either plays up to their full potential and wins outright or they make mistakes and turn the ball over and lose by 17+.

Miami 24-21

I hate the fact that I have 3 games where I like the dog to win outright and in all 3 games I am still taking the points. It just feels wimpy.


Plays:
South Carolina -2.5
Kentucky -23.5
Rice +2
Florida St +8.5
Miami +9.5

 

[InTheHole]

bol

 

[Blitty]

Looks good wally. I'm sure I will be tailing the majority of those.

 

[Badnina]

I completely agree with you on South Carolina.

 

[wal66]

Thanks, Inner, Blitty and Nina.


Bread, if you are gonna fade me this is a good week to do so. All 5 games have potential to go the other way. I like all 5 a lot but I am putting a lot of faith in things like playing REALLY quality football with the Noles and the Canes.

 

[Cougar Bait]

Was leaning the same way on some of these. Not sure about Miami still...I think OSU could smoke them. Oklahoma sure did look like a pretender...but were they just looking past Utah State? Opinion on the Michigan/Note Dame game?

 

[wal66]

Coug's I looked into that game and favored Michigan even though they are on the road. I haven't seen a total for the game yet though and that is something that I would be inclide to favor when it comes out. I could see a 35-33 type of ball game. Just a guess though cause I didn't bother watching either team play the game just the highlights.

 

[wal66]

Haven't added this yet but deserves some serious consideration.

Memphis @ ECU -12.5, ECU looks to be getting a good number here.

 

[Bread]

Nice writeups. Haven't decided if I'm fading, following or leaving it all alone this weekend.

 

[Cougar Bait]

I like ECU

Central Michigan +8
Marshall +14

Thoughts?

 

[FairWarning]

Was leaning the same way on some of these. Not sure about Miami still...I think OSU could smoke them. Oklahoma sure did look like a pretender...but were they just looking past Utah State? Opinion on the Michigan/Note Dame game?

I live by ND and will be at the game. I would look at the dog and grab the points now. It is a dog series.

Didn't mean to pollute the thread.

 

[Cougar Bait]

I live by ND and will be at the game. I would look at the dog and grab the points now. It is a dog series.

Didn't mean to pollute the thread.

Have fun at the game FW. Post some pics or something.

I was thinking Michigan ML actually but am starting to back away from all the high profile games this week. The plan is to just bet on bad teams.

 

[wal66]

FairWarning, my threads are for ALL football talk. Even if you disagree with a play it's all about talking things out. We never know who might have an angle or some other item that someone overlooked. I have no ego about the plays I post and welcome any an all discussion about my games as well as any other.

 

[AMBy]

I can't believe I am saying this but I really like Syracuse again this week with all those points.

I know Washington is a better team but I expected the line to open around 8...not 11.

 

[wal66]

Amby, I wish you luck with that one. It scared the hell out of me. I plan on playing Syracuse again this season and this week may well be a good spot just scary. If you play it I hope you nail it though. You've already found value in the line from what I gather.

 

[Saulty]

Good luck Wal. I will make sure I'm not against you when I make my picks.

 

[wal66]

Pavy this week is a potential fade fest. I am placing a lot of emphasis on teams potential and that can be costly.

 

[wal66]

3-2 on the day for a slight profit.

Miami and FSU were bitter disappointments. I knew going in they would have to play up to their full potential and then some and they didn’t.

Also cost myself an additional win by never getting around to that East Carolina game.

Season is at 7-3 and next week I will have program plays.