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Wal's College Football Week #7 (Entertainment Purposes Only)

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wal66

wal66

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Central Florida -13
Kansas St -14.5
West Virginia -14.5
Cincinnati -6.5
Purdue -12.5
Central Michigan -3
Missouri -6
Southern Miss -10.5
Maryland -8
Syracuse -3.5
NC State -11
Michigan St -4.5
Indiana -7.5
FSU -22.5
Georgia -4.5
Alabama -19
South Carolina -16
Florida -1
Ball State -10
Temple -13
Miami -9.5
Colorado St PK
Ohio U -20.5
Army -3.5
Notre Dame -11
Iowa -1.5
California -6.5
Oklahoma St -5.5
Northern Illinois -8.5
Virginia tech -21.5
Houston -13.5
Nebraska -11.5
Georgia Tech -20
SMU PK
TCU -22
Idaho -10.5
UTEP -7
Utah -13
North Carolina -7.5
Ohio St -5
Tulsa -9
Troy -12
Toledo -5
Oklahoma -12.5
UL Monroe -1.5
Baylor PK
Arizona -21
Florida International -9.5
Auburn -4.5
Air Force -7.5
Boise St -31
Oregon St -12.5
Fresno St -19.5
Nevada -10.5
 
I am trying desperately to devote the proper amount of time into selecting a card. Problem is now I am doubting my program and myself and even though it is known to stay the course when it's going bad that is difficult to do.

One game does stand out though so far and it's not due to the program either. Also it is a total and I'm generally not very confident in totals but I really like this one.


I like the over 52.5 (depending on where you look) in the SMU/Navy game. I really think SMU will be able to attack Navy's secondary and even though Navy isn't having the same success this year as in recent years with the running game I still see them moving the ball and putting points on the screboard. Personally I like SMU here winning the game but not sure if they will make the card but still se them getting in 35+ points here and Navy staying right on their heels.

So SMU/Navy over 52.5 will definately be a play and I would feel comfortable with this line past 55 even.
 
There are 2 games that aren’t on my radar as plays per the program is concerned that are worth mentioning. They are doing some serious RLM, not the only games but these 2 stand out more than some of the others in my mind at least.

Pittsburgh @ Syracuse. Personally I liked Syracuse when the lines came, I mean my program had them as a 3.5 point favorite and they opened as a 1.5 point dog and soon after were getting 2.5. I hesitated when the line was going up to pull the trigger blindly because I was hoping it would continue to climb. The percentages of wagers indicated and still do that publicly Pitt is the play which I liked and re-enforced my decision to hold off. Today though the line has flipped and while the public number still show Pitt as a popular side the money has spoke loudly and I may very have well waited myself out of a play.

Air Force @ San Diego. State Now this game was never really even a thought. If asked I would have said Air Force without giving it any thought at all. The line action indicates that I would have been thinking in a very public way. This line has continued to drop even though it remains as one the heaviest games on the ticket for one sided action.

I haven’t decided to make either of these plays just wanted to bring them to your attention in case anyone wanted to discuss or has information to share.
 
Air Force @ San Diego St

We often get too wrapped up in RLM movements and start to over evaluate the situations. I, myself have already laid off a game this week due to RLM in the Central Florida/Marshall game. What determines valid concerns for RLM and over reactive reactions to RLM I cant answer, its most likely an individual thing.

There was some initial RLM in the Air Force/San Diego St game, in fact it was pretty drastic. The line opened at 4 and the bottom fell out for 2 days moving down to 1 before leveling off and starting to climb back up. I remained concerned but capped through the game anyways.

Both teams have played BYU, Air Force won at home 35-14 while San Diego St lost at BYU 21-24. So even though the games were played with different advantages there is still an edge to Air Force. Air Force also has the edge in recent meetings although I dont personally put a lot of stock in that but it can make a difference to some.

When you look at the year to date averages for offense and defense these 2 are carbon copies of one another. Air Force averages 34.5 ppg and allows 18.2 while San Diego averages 34.8 ppg and allows just 15.8. Compare that to the strength of schedule though and Air Force is stacking these numbers up against better opponents. Not by a lot but enough to register.

There are no significant injuries to speak of that require serious consideration. San Diego has a slight edge in returning players but its only an edge on the offensive side. Obviously San Diego St has home field advantage and they are an improved team this year.

When I cant find substantial reasoning to go against or stay away from what my program indicates as value in the listed line and the generated line I tend to go with it. That is the case with this game, even though there was some early RLM everything else points to Air Force and I am willing to go with it.

Official Play:

Air Force -1.5
 
Kent @ Toledo

For whatever reason I tend to play more of these smaller school type games than others. I would like to think that I select games that may not get as much attention publicly which in turn has a better chance of value from the books. Is this true, I really don’t know but in my mind it is and that’s what I go with.

Toledo probably shocked a few with an impressive win against Purdue earlier this season. I’m not sure how impressive it actually was but it did catch my attention and enabled me to play on them the following week as they laid an egg at home against Wyoming. They have played Arizona and Boise State as well this season and have a dramatic advantage in terms of strength of schedule compared to Kent. Here again this is a personal preference type thing and some may not put as much stock in that as others.

As far as key injuries are concerned Kent will be without RB Eugene Jarvis due to a groin injury. Toledo’s QB Austin Dantin is listed as questionable due to a concussion but most likely will get to play. I tried to factor this game in the event that Austin can’t play and Terrence Owens gets the start and I still would give a slight edge to Toledo.

I hope I am not under-valuing Kent too much here. I have in previous years picked my spots with them and had success. This time I am playing against them though and we’ll have to see if that read is as good.

Technically this game doesn’t meet my usual minimum differential to constitute a play but when factoring in the strength of opponents, being at home and several other reasons plus that little instinct that sometimes kicks in, it’s enough to make them one of my plays this week.

Official Play:

Toledo -3
 
motivated sdsu team?

The San Diego Union Tribune is reporting that the Mountain West Conference has indefinetly suspended three officials, including the head official from Saturday's SDSU at BYU game as a result of the obvious blown fumble call in the 3rd quarter of the game where it appeared that BYU RB J.J. Di Luigi fumbled and lost the ball.

The MWC released this statement:

"Consistent with existing evaluative protocols for its on-field and instant replay officiating systems, the MWC has conducted a thorough review of the play in question to assess whether a correct call was made and, if not, identify the source of any error(s). This has included extensive video analysis, interviews with all involved parties and investigation of any potential technical malfunctions. Once the final determination was made, appropriate actions were taken via established internal conference channels."

Many people will remember the infamous non-call at Missouri in which SDSU should have won the game. At this point, SDSU should be 5-0, in the Top-25, and helping the MWC get the BCS standing it deserves. Instead they are 3-2 and facing dropping to 3-3 with No. 22 Air Force coming to town next weekend. Oh and it goes on. For those of you who watched the SDSU BYU game, at the end of the 4th quarter when SDSU was trying to get the ball back, it appeared that SDSU stopped BYU on third down and would get the ball back for one more try to kick a FG to send the game into OT or a TD to win. But wait, a phantom pass interference flag was thrown and BYU ran out the game.

Mountain West officials confirmed to Hoke that the flag never should have been thrown.

San Diego sports are cursed.
Click to expand...

http://www.mwcconnection.com/2010/1...-conference-suspends-three-officials-from-byu
 
Vanderbilt @ Georgia

Last week at 1-4 Georgia was an 11.5 point favorite against Tennessee after coming off a loss to Colorado. Many thought the line didnt make sense because even though the Vols are still struggling they certainly could stay in the game against a very down Georgia team. That didnt happen and Georgia dominated the Vols throughout.

This week the Bulldogs are again a double digit favorite at home against another SEC team in a 2-3 Vanderbilt. The Commodores are one of those teams I like to pick my spots with. They are never very good but they are often better than the credit they are given by way of the lines. I think this week is just one of those spots. Vandy is by no means a great team and really arent even that good of a team but they do like to control the clock and they generally play pretty good defense.

I fully expect Georgia to win this game and I also look for AJ Green to have a fairly decent day but I can also see Vanderbilt having some success running the ball and sprinkling in enough passes that the Dawgs cant just pin their ears back and load the box all day. I think Vandy keeps this game within 10 points and since Georgia only rates as a 4.5 point favorite according to the program that allows me a comfortable margin of value here.

Official Play:

Vanderbilt +14 (-110)
 
For 2 seasons I wore my 60%+ badge proudly for college football. This year it appears I will yet again reach 60%+ only it will be losers. I would simply call it quits but it appears that I have taken on a different role now, that of fade material.
 
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