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Wal's College Football Week #4

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wal66

wal66

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Will be interesting to see when these lines come out. I have already identified some that I disagree with my program on.


Miami -2
TCU -18.5
UConn -10.5
Northwestern -12
Virginia Tech -3.5
Maryland -17.5
Michigan -18.5
NC State -1
Iowa -28
Purdue -5.5
Tennessee -18
Kansas St -8
Air Force -15.5
Missouri -15
Duke -8
USC -30
Houston -17.5
Stanford -14
North Carolina -2
Ohio St -45
Penn St -7.5
Texas -18
FSU -15
Alabama -7.5
Troy -9.5
Idaho -11.5
Nevada -7.5
Oklahoma -17.5
Fl Atlantic -17
Indiana -23
Kansas -24
Southern Miss -10
Iowa St -8
Marshall -2.5
UL Lafayette -6
Georgia -2.5
Florida -10.5
South Florida -24
Fresno St -10.5
South Carolina -3.5
Boise St -14
Utah -27
San Diego St -6
Baylor -7.5
Minnesota -5
LSU -9
UTEP PK
New Mexico -1.5
Arizona -6.5
Oregon -13.5
 
Some games are still not available at my book but two were.

Stanford -3.5
Southern Miss -6

Will update full card when games are available.

I can tell you South Carolina ML will be a play when it is released at my Geekbet
 
Thanks Inner. Was a brutal weekend but we have all had them at one time or another. I'll admit that Stanford line looks so far off it's a little scary.

I know tanfod doesn't usually travel well and especially away from the west coast but I really think Notre Dame is still being given far too much credit.
 
Toledo is getting 13 on the road at Purdue. My program suggests Purdue should win this game but shouldnt be favored by more than 5.5 points. This gives me 7.5 points of value and I will take my chances.

NC State offensively looks pretty good and while it is a young defense it is a physical one. They will have their hands full trying to contain the running of Georgia Tech and while this is a risky play I have plenty of value according to my program as it say NC State should be a 1 point favorite. If this were a home game I would run the risk with the moneyline but since its on the road I will accept any and all points available.

Stanford is a 3.5 point favorite at Notre Dame. History tells us 2 things here, you dont bet on Stanford on the road and especially away from the west coast and you dont bet on Stanford to beat Notre Dame. Im bucking conventional wisdom and going with what I have seen so far as the better team here. My program says Stanford should be favored by 14 so Im laying the 3.5 early cause this line will sure increase.

Idaho -7.5 at Colorado St. To be completely honest this is strictly a program play. I did see a little of Colorado St play but havent even see highlights of Idaho. Program says I have 4 points worth of value and while I should pass cutting it so close to what qualifies when I have no knowledge of the teams in play, Im gonna just go with it.

Southern Miss is laying 5.5 on the road to LA Tech. Here again I have seen Southern Miss play and they are GOOD but I havent seen any footage of LA Tech. All I know is Southern Miss is fast and physical and if LA Tech isnt this game could get ugly in a hurry.

LA Lafayette +1.5 at home against Mid Tenn St. Strictly trusting my program here. According to the program LA Lafayette should be favored by 6 so thats good enough for me. This will make HoosierCatDaddy squirm as I have just jinxed his beloved team.

South Carolina +2.5 at Auburn. WOW! This game could be one huge epic battle at least I hope it is. South Carolina is my pick to win the SEC East as I wrote about before the season started so if I am a little biased here youll understand. I really felt they had a good team this year and that the timing was right for Garcia and Spurrier to be on the same page and the offense would click. I expected also that the defense would still be a solid unit even after losing some key players to the draft. On the flip, many expected Auburn to be the main competition to Alabamas chance at winning the West and so far it all looks likely. Cam Newton is a serious dual threat for Auburn and any team playing them has to keep a dedicated spy on him. Even when this is done though there is no guarantee he still wont burn them. This game has everything needed to make it a Game of the Week, I just hope its a winning game for me and those that agree.


Plays:

Toledo +13
NC State +8.5
Stanford -3.5
Idaho -7.5
Southern Miss -5.5
UL Lafayette +1.5
South Carolina +2.5


All to win 1 unit.
 
South Carolina's O Line has taken a beating in the first three game, which I think explains why Auburn is favored. However, Auburn lost one of theirs Saturday night for the season. While Cam Newton is a very good player, one player cannot beat everyone. Auburn has one receiver that plays fairly consistently. And they went 4 quarters (last 2 against M State and first 2 against Clemson) scoring a total of 3 points. They are nowhere near the level people think they are.

But then again, I am biased.
 
Bad things happening.

I locked Southern Miss in early as I thought the line would be around 7 by game day. I was WRONG. Line is getting hammered down. Granted the sites I have available for looking at actions aren't actual number but they have given me a good prespective in the past and I am seeing 72% action on Southern Miss and a line that is down to 3.5. This isn't good.
 
wal, any thoughts on temple/pen st? i liked temple as soon as i saw the line and i see your program agrees that there is some value there.......always enjoy seeing your generated numbers as they were very helpful to me last year...with you on Stanford, s.car, and possibly nc st. GL this weekend
 
Bread, yes they are, fade away pal.

2da, I liked Temple a lot and really never found a reason to not make them a play other than I have enough plays already. Now I did not look very deep into the game so if there was something to be found that would have kept me away from it anyways I don't know.
 
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