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UFC 116 insight (Come on Bread, Illmatick and The Hoff. Lets put our brains together

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AlldayJ

AlldayJ

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What do you guys think about this weekend? I have flipflopped back and forth between Lesnar and Carwin so much but now I am slowly leaning towards Lesnar.

The Cons against Lesnar are:

the year long lay off for people that believe in ring rust.

some say his chin has not been tested and it probably will be this weekend.

still has a new career and hasn't fought anybody that great(no Couture and Mir don't really count)

Cons against Carwin:

Hasn't been out of the 1st round so we don't know much about his endurance.

Chin definitely got tested in the Gonzaga fight and his chin came damn close to completely failing that test.

Division II wrestling Champion (Maybe someone here with a lot of wrestling knowledge could let us know if there is a big difference between division I and II champions at the collegiate level)

Alright guys let me know what you think. Also since I do kind of like Lesnar at this point, do you guys think the line on him will keep dropping so I should wait to put a bet on him.

I want to here some analysis from the genius's.
 
Division I is well above Division II. Lesnar is the better wrestler no questions asked. Carwin was taken down by Gonzaga in their fight. Lesnar's cardio is incredible. He can go 5 rounds no problem. Carwin's is unknown. I don't think Brock will even try to stand with Carwin. Although I think he would be fine on the feet, Lesnar would be wise to take him down and smother him. Looking at past UFC fights, the dominate wrestler wins against the better striker.

Evans over Jackson, Silva
GSP over Hardy, Alves
Koscheck over Daley, Johnson

I see the line still moving and wouldn't be surprised if it is closer to even come fight night. I'm waiting to place my bet on Lesnar.
 
Typically I wouldn't flinch at going with Lesnar but the guy nearly died at the end of October last year. I am guessing he was probably recovering for a few months so he probably started hitting the gym again in Feb/March. Is three months enough to get someone physically and mentally back into shape to defend a title? I don't know.

I am waiting until the weigh-in picture to make my decision.
 
Akiyama wins by 3 round decision at +263 looks nice, not really a whole lot of value on this card imo, I might just stick with a few small prop plays. If Kurt Pellegrino hits +175 I'll play him, waiting for my buddy charib to give me a write-up on how he thinks their bjj matches up


The Schaub line looks a little inflated but Chris seems to be as one dimensional as they come, also like lesnar in the championship fight....I don't see the line dropping too much lower, it would surprise me to see it drop below -130
 
AlldayJ
I feel like this thread is getting lost in the mix and I really need all of your input. Bread I am still waiting on your writeup and illmatick, I wish you still did your write-ups as well.
Click to expand...

usually only bust out my write-ups for the big plays, should have one for the Jake Ellenberger fight next month

3 plays I'm looking at for the undercard, still think there may be a lot of value in Romero

Daniel Roberts -185
Dave Branch +210
Ricardo Romero -180
 
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