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UCF/Marshall

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Cougar Bait

Cougar Bait

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Lets' talk about this game

Number sitting on -6/under over 45 most places

UCF clearly the better team, a little RLM (as of last night I saw 80% on UCF with the line headed the other way...now it seems it's moving back with what I am guessing will be a -6.5 to -7 finish).

MF, Wally, Kato, who you on?

I lean UCF as they are 1st in their division in defense and Marshall sits at 8th. But now that the line is headed the other way I am even more torn. The gambler in me tells me to ignore the fact that everyone and their borther watched UCF manhandle UAB at home last week and will only remember the final score and will look at the crappy Marshall record and pound UCF. And even though neither offense is spectacular, 45 seems like a steep number. Maybe this is a no-play but I am bored and figure by now I should be able to sort these messes out. I guess that's not the case.
 
i have horse in this race, and no knowledge about either team

marshall

45-7-loss
24-21 OT-loss
44-28-loss
24-23-win
41-16-win

ucf

38-7-win
28-21-loss
24-10-win
17-13-loss
42-7-win

2 terrible teams. like the over and marshall to cover
 
I am still torn.

Kato you expect Marshall to keep this close for 4 quarters? I know they tend to be tougher at home, but it's not the West Virginia game. I am not sure the fire will be there for this game as it was for that one. UCF offense looked like a well oiled machine last week. Not to mention they left 16 points on the field (that I saw). Then again, that's probably the public perception, so why isn't the line higher? Man this is annoying.
 
Home field advantage varying degrees of importance, some teams simply get more motivation at home than others. Marshall tends to be a place where the team gains immense motivation form the home crowd. While the team gets up for home games and the crowd does what it can playing at Marshall just isnt as intense for visiting teams as say, playing at LSU at night or Tennessee with Rocky Top playing till your mind goes numb.

I said all of that to bring up the point about the opening line and action following the opening. This line opened at most places as UCF -6.5. That seemed off by at least 4 points and even if you graded Marshall higher in home field advantage than they should be this opening line is still off.

Next you have to look at how the season is going and these two squads UCF is a significantly better team with a very solid defense. So then I looked at the potential for a look ahead spot and it just isnt there. So why was the line low at opening and why did it immediately start going down?

Ill admit that we (myself for sure) sometimes place too much importance on RLM and maybe more importantly we (again me for sure) dont have a real understanding of it. We know from what weve do understand it that when this happens big money is making it happen. We assume, whales or sharps are causing this. Even if it is those guys dont win every time, right?

Logically, statistically, and from every angle UCF should win this game fairly easy and I might be missing a golden opportunity but I cant ignore what I think to be a bad line so Im passing.

I do like the under.

Its nice to be back to being myself again and taking up an entire page just to say I pass.
 
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