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Throw $$ on Miami/San Antonio UNDER 199.5

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CASPERWAIT$

CASPERWAIT$

Drama Moobs Your Mom
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Miami is playing better as of late. Scoring points and playing defense. ESPN is back on their nutsack again. Simple rule of thumb. Whenever ESPN starts talking about how good you are, expect the opposite the next game out. San Antonio is back on that scoring thing again and tonight is a game that they play DOWN to Miami's level in regards to scoring. I expect both teams to come out slow and the most points scored in the game will be in the 4th quarter.

San Antonio 99 Miami 94
 
Spurs are only 3-7 ATS against winning teams in their last 10 games, and 1-5 ATS in the last 6. This team is only 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games facing a team with a .600+ winning home record, an indication that the books have been over-valuing them. I like Miami, small.
 
Cougar Bait
Spurs are only 3-7 ATS against winning teams in their last 10 games, and 1-5 ATS in the last 6. This team is only 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games facing a team with a .600+ winning home record, an indication that the books have been over-valuing them. I like Miami, small.
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Let me preface this by saying I suck at gambling..........but


I swear I'm not trying to be a dick but is this how you typically handicap basketball? I mean, you've been at the top of the BB thread for a LONG time but if this is how you handicap games it just blows my mind. I'm trying to get inside the mind of a Cougar here and I'm sincerely curious.
 
Let me expound a little on that thought..........

The extremely small sample size ATS data you stated is the kind of data that Bodog gleefully provides their customers in order for them to make wagers on their site. I'm guessing Bodog doesn't believe they're providing their customers with an edge by making that data available to them (I tend to agree with Bodog). Am I making any sense?
 
Daft I use a dartboard. I liked Miami for a number of reasons. But I don't like to go on rants about why I like a team. Yeah there's revenge as well, but also the Spurs haven't played that well on the road against good defensive teams all year. Miami has really picked up the defensive intensity and the Spurs seems to be going in the other direction, allowing 100+ their last 3 games.

I don't use BoDog.

What's the score?
 
Daft
Let me preface this by saying I suck at gambling..........but


I swear I'm not trying to be a dick but is this how you typically handicap basketball? I mean, you've been at the top of the BB thread for a LONG time but if this is how you handicap games it just blows my mind. I'm trying to get inside the mind of a Cougar here and I'm sincerely curious.
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Daft, I have my spreadsheet with more games on it. My pick also was made because the last time these 2 teams played they scored a total of 220 points. I found 199.5 low. The fact that at tipoff, the line was 198.5 made me feel even better. At the half, I am feeling pretty good.
 
See I really didn't want you to take it in a way where you would say something like "I use a dartboard". I never thought you did.

It's not a rant. It's just a discussion. Do you really not know the score? Does the score of this game have anything to do with this though?

If you do as well at sportsbetting as your BB record would imply (it's very impressive) by using small sample size ATS data than I am sincerely in awe.

I'm seriously not trying to be a dick.
 
It's a'ight Daft. I use lots of different things. Public betting percentages, matchups, good/bad spot for the team in general, turnovers are big for me, coaching advantages. All the normal things you would expect a sports bettor to use. And, yeah I also check trends. If my response to this thread made you think the whole reason I liked Miami tonight was only ATS trends I guess I should have made it clear those weren't the only reasons.

And as for my NBA picks, they aren't great usually. I mean, look at New Orleans tonight. What a hot mess.
 
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