The 144th Running of the Kentucky Derby

[Boner_18]

Caspy, who you like? Justify looks too good. Prob key him on top of a bunch.

 

[roguejuror]

I think Casper is baking cookies or something

 

[roguejuror]

Cool story about HK syndicates

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-05-03/the-gambler-who-cracked-the-horse-racing-code

 

[Boner_18]

Yeah saw that article. A buddy of mine has been talking about doing something like that for years and sent the article as proof we've missed our opportunity. I disagreed, I think it kust means it's possible. My buddy is not a stats guy and while he likes gambling he doesn't know about things like modeling, chasing steam, arbing, middles, etc.

 

[Boner_18]

Conductor on the train asked me who I have - He's got Mendalshon. I punted and said, "it's hard to not use Justify" but I think in reality I have Good Magic...

 

[max headroom]

I will instatail Boner (pro) and fade Casper.

 

[CASPERWAIT$]

I lost on the Derby. Had the winner and place horse in 2 separate exacta boxes. I hate betting chalk.

 

[MrMonkey]

Boner, Justify by the end of the Preakness looked beatable! What's your say on him going the longer distance at the Belmont? Possibly more owners/trainers think the same and possibly see more horses entered going after him!

 

[Boner_18]

I thought he looked great in the preakness but all the experts say he looked beatable especially at 12f. Even Baffert said it was a "nail biter".

I simply cannot decide if i think he'll do it. He's capable of it. Run this race 100 times under the same circumstances and he wins some, maybe 25, 35?

12f, after 19.5f of racing in the preceding 5 weeks.. I dunno. I'm flip flopping every time I think of it. My wife is wishing he falls short since we were there for Pharoah and she doesn't want that to be less special. I on the other hand realize how impossible this is and I hope he does it.

 

[Boner_18]

Also. Steves I don't think I'm a good handicapper. Caspy probs better.

 

[max headroom]

I simply don't agree on that but yeah I made peace with Casp so maybe I was biased. I can be a LITTLE angry and biased.

I'm not a good capper either man. Good as fuck at poker but not capping. A good capper doesn't lose $800 on Jennings/Ross vs the Brazilians not knowing that Ross is a little injured.

http://www.nbcolympics.com/video/walsh-jennings-ross-fall-brazil-beach-semifinals

I can still feel that shit man.

:

 

[reno cool]

Cool story about HK syndicates

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-05-03/the-gambler-who-cracked-the-horse-racing-code

didn't really get in too much detail on their strategy, but the pools must be huge there to make that kind of money. ..also apparently they were adjusting their probabilities based on the morning line, which they call their greatest discovery. Sounds a little strange to me

 

[reno cool]

Also. Steves I don't think I'm a good handicapper. Caspy probs better.

unless he changed his ways, I would go with a no

 

[Boner_18]

I didn't say he was good. Just better than me... I'm awful.

 

[roguejuror]

didn't really get in too much detail on their strategy, but the pools must be huge there to make that kind of money. ..also apparently they were adjusting their probabilities based on the morning line, which they call their greatest discovery. Sounds a little strange to me

yeah these mainstream type stories tend to be half truths but the level of public play in HK it is indeed huge