Hooligans Sportsbook

Strong analytical gamblers attention only

  • Start date •
  • Replies
    50 Replies •
  • Views 3,197 Views
Follow
mcbaseball10

mcbaseball10

Outnumbered
Since
Jan 27, 2010
Messages
7,490
Score
889
Tokens
0
I will give you my leans on a few games, you tell me why I shouldn't bet it based off your numbers:

-110 Cincinnati Reds @ Cleveland Indians

-143 Atlanta Braves @ Pittsburgh Pirates

Both of these games look like strong plays however both have indicated strong RLM from the opening lines to the lines early this afternoon. Anybody want to chime in, I would appreciate it. :handshake::hattip:
 
I was wondering if that would have anything to do with the line movement. Arroyo is a much more reliable pitcher than Westbrook and Cleveland has struggled offensively of late. The bullpen situation for Cincy is cause for concern as well. Wanted to see if anybody had anything else to add on this one.
 
mcbaseball10
I will give you my leans on a few games, you tell me why I shouldn't bet it based off your numbers:

-110 Cincinnati Reds @ Cleveland Indians

-143 Atlanta Braves @ Pittsburgh Pirates

Both of these games look like strong plays however both have indicated strong RLM from the opening lines to the lines early this afternoon. Anybody want to chime in, I would appreciate it. :handshake::hattip:
Click to expand...

I found no value in the Braves game. That being said I think Atlanta will win the game (I had them a play at -120 or better). I have Cleveland as a play at +100 or better and got them this morning at +109 which I bet.
 
mcbaseball10
You've got it wrong FW. I don't have the strong analytical skills, that's why I'm asking others. I am limited in my capping ability and have found myself struggling mightily lately.
Click to expand...
Ok, got it now. I'm not a slave to the number-crunching and system -fitting in baseball. The best teams lost 60 times and the best hitters fail 65%. I tried it before with no better results. I'll tell you what works better for you - sticking to a few teams and bet those games, maybe for a higher amount. Much easier to cap teams you watch, vs blind numbers.
 
I'm also on the Pirates. There's not a really easy way to spell it all out. Basically, after looking at the most predictive components of the starters, offenses, and bullpens, regressing them to the mean, converting those components to projected runs vs neutral teams, using log5 to project runs in this matchup, using something pythagoreanish to project winning %, and then comparing to the line, the Pirates look like a play.

And that's why I don't provide write-ups.
 
mcbaseball10
I will give you my leans on a few games, you tell me why I shouldn't bet it based off your numbers:

-110 Cincinnati Reds @ Cleveland Indians

-143 Atlanta Braves @ Pittsburgh Pirates

Both of these games look like strong plays however both have indicated strong RLM from the opening lines to the lines early this afternoon. Anybody want to chime in, I would appreciate it. :handshake::hattip:
Click to expand...

I love IL play

I'm big on Cincy

also big on Pitt though
 
MrX
I'm also on the Pirates. There's not a really easy way to spell it all out. Basically, after looking at the most predictive components of the starters, offenses, and bullpens, regressing them to the mean, converting those components to projected runs vs neutral teams, using log5 to project runs in this matchup, using something pythagoreanish to project winning %, and then comparing to the line, the Pirates look like a play.

And that's why I don't provide write-ups.
Click to expand...

You forgot homefield advantage....... OMG can't believe that. :)
 
You must log in or register to reply here.