Stale line bookie take 2

[mcbaseball10]

Alright boys, I found a new local in Ohio to take some action using Friday's lines for NCAA and NFL action. Let's see how it goes. I plan on making all plays that are -130 or better on Pinnacle at the time making the play. All plays are -110 with this guy. We are starting out with $50 per game and will make adjustment once we get a feel for it. This is as good a place as any to track it.

Any advice on whether my method needs to be tweaked or if my conversions are flawed, please let me know.

 

[mcbaseball10]

9/16/12

Vikings-1.5 (-3 -133 equiv.)
Eagles-2 (-2 -138)
Jags +7.5 (+6.5 -144)
Saints over 51 (53.5 ??)
Oakland over 37 (40.5 ??)
Jags under 41.5 (40 -132)
Rams under 45.5 (42.5??)

 

[Tomato]

You shouldn't be flat betting these.

 

[mcbaseball10]

You shouldn't be flat betting these.

Using $100 as a base bet for simplicity purposes, how do you recommend determining amounts to bet based on advantage?

 

[FreeFall]

http://www.sbrforum.com/betting-tools/half-point-calculator/

this will help you with totals. Let me know if you need help. Yes smart guys I know this isn't "accurate", but it's good enough to get an idea.

I think he is flat betting to get a feel for the bookie. But Tomato is suggesting you use kelly ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion ) to figure out how much for each position to maximize your returns.

 

[mcbaseball10]

Rito told me to use half point calc and I guess I got lazy. Never done kelly so will have to figure it out. Thanks.

 

[choo]

any idea what his limits are?

 

[MonkeyF0cker]

Just bet some sort of spread ($110/$165/$220/etc.). Hard to bet Kelly without a database or model.

I wouldn't trust the 1/2 point calc except as a basic guideline. It probably hasn't been updated in four years anyway.

 

[mcbaseball10]

Just bet some sort of spread ($110/$165/$220/etc.). Hard to bet Kelly without a database or model.

I wouldn't trust the 1/2 point calc except as a basic guideline. It probably hasn't been updated in four years anyway.

I was just using pinny drop downs. Kelly seems a bit complicated for me but would be willing to learn if it would be beneficial. So would tiering bets based on pinny work? Say a -135 to-145 would be $75(base $50 right now) etc. How would you approach it if in my shoes? It cant be that different from MLB and NBA which worked out fairly well for me ( until I didnt get paid)
Choo, I really dont know much about the setup as my friend just offered this to me today. Will get more info.

 

[MonkeyF0cker]

The problem with using Pinny dropdowns is you're not going to have numbers for most of the stuff you're betting. It will be out of range and you won't know the approximate value.

 

[choo]

Choo, I really dont know much about the setup as my friend just offered this to me today. Will get more info.

gotcha. as long as its not like $50 do what MF suggested with the tiers imo

 

[mcbaseball10]

Do you think using-130 as a starting point to qualify plays is good?

 

[choo]

based on your sample in post 1 i think thats fine yeah

 

[roguejuror]

HURRAH!

 

[RicardoEsteban]

I would lower strike price to -120 and round robin all for the max.

But that's just me.

 

[Saulty]

9/16/12

Vikings-1.5 (-3 -133 equiv.)
Eagles-2 (-2 -138)
Jags +7.5 (+6.5 -144)
Saints over 51 (53.5 ??)
Oakland over 37 (40.5 ??)
Jags under 41.5 (40 -132)
Rams under 45.5 (42.5??)

3-4

Looks like he knows what he is doing.

 

[mcbaseball10]

3-4

Looks like he knows what he is doing.

True Pavy, thanks for the insight.

 

[Saulty]

True Pavy, thanks for the insight.

Lines don't win games. Players and coaches win games. So pick the team that has the greatest chance to cover the spread. You are betting $50 a game so getting the best line would have no significant effect to your bottom line. Now if you are betting $5000 a game getting the best line is important.