Polaroid: Baseball Stat Question

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Polly...when you told me last week that Boston was 93% to win that particular game in that particular situation with that large of a lead....do those numbers come from straight baseball stats? Or do they take into account Boston's lineup and their particular stats versus Texas' pitching/bullpen stats.

Do they take into account the weather? The managers? The defense?

Or was it just a blanket stat on MLB stats for the year.

Are they for the year, or all-time?

Do you factor in the probability of a fly swarm invading the mound? (RIP Joba Chamberlain & Guru)

Talk to me.

 

[senco78]

perfect game alert

 

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I love that guy so much. Holy cow.

 

[Polaroid]

Talk to me.

To the best of my knowledge it was a blanket stat irrelevant of the two teams teams, team offense, team defense, pitchers on the mound and warming up or the probability of fly swarms invading the mound. It is taken from fangraphs.com - here is the play log for the current Angels/Twins game.

http://www.fangraphs.com/liveplays.aspx?date=2010-08-21&team=Twins&dh=0&season=2010

The WE column third from the right gives the probability of winning for the home side and as I type this with 2 outs in the top of the 7th, the Twins are losing 7-3 and have a 8.2% chance of winning.

 

[Bread]

Thanks man.

 

[senco78]

you quit gambling , it doesnt matter anymore
go to some shots

 

[Bread]

Gambling is for the birds. I invest. Just kidding.