Polaroid
I need a tittle
- Since
- Jan 21, 2010
- Messages
- 2,890
- Score
- 3
- Tokens
- 0
Now the Spring Training games are underway and the rosters, as well as the PECOTA predictions, are a lot firmer than a month ago, its time to look at the remainder of the Pinnacle MLB season long props; these being for team wins/losses.
First is the team wins prop where the O/U is set at 100.5 which would have been a winner last year when the New York Yankees won 103 games to win the AL East on their way to winning the World Series. Looking back at the past decade, it has been pretty much a Yankees prop as well in all years aside from 2001, where Seattle were the sole +100.5 game winner, if the over has cashed then the Yankees also won greater than 100.5 games. The other only teams to hit over 100.5 were Oakland in 2002, the Cardinals in 2004 and Atlanta in 2002/2003 and it would seem most unlikely for any of those teams to be that dominant in 2010.
Also, it doesn't appear that the Yankees will be as dominant either. PECOTA have them with a predicted 92-70 record which only puts them 3rd in the AL East and out of playoff contention with Boston winning the division with a 98-64 record and Tampa Bay grabbing the wild card berth with one less win. And with three competitive teams in the AL East, that reduces the probability of one of them dominating sufficiently to win over 100.5 games although it's the clear favorite that if the over hits, it will be hit by one of these teams. Looking around the other divisions, PECOTA only predicts one other team with 90+ wins which is the St. Louis Cardinals who are listed at 91-69.
While analysing the team wins prop, it is a relatively simplistic model in such way that you can look at the expected number of wins and apply a degree of statistical variation and then ascertain whether the variance gives a good enough chance for the over to hit. Specifically with team wins, the trade element is not such a factor since if the top teams are performing well, that is with a large divisional lead and on course to hit or better their predicted number of wins, they are less likely to go for a blockbuster trade which would increase the probability of hitting over 100.5 games. Rather, it would be teams just out of contention who would use the trade to see some playing time in October even then, it's even less likely that these teams would be winning over 100.5 games.
The teams who have the biggest unknowns, with regard to the effect of trades, on hitting the over are the poorly performing teams, and that prop is the number of losses rather than wins. Simply put, if a team is out of contention by the trade deadline date, there is a fair chance that they decide to rebuild, trade away their aces and increase the probability of a bad team losing more that they would normally, getting worse and hitting the loss over.
The O/U for losses is set at 101.5 where the over would have cashed six times in the last ten years and in both 2008 and 2009 where the worst team was the same team as the Washington Nationals managed 102 losses in 2008 and 103 last season. With a PECOTA prediction of 78-84 in 2010, taking into account a number of signings made in the offseason, it seems that they might avoid the MLB's worst hat trick. Don't count out the Pittsburgh Pirates either who have been rebuilding/hopeless since 1993 and who have a PECOTA prediction of 71-91 this coming season.
.
First is the team wins prop where the O/U is set at 100.5 which would have been a winner last year when the New York Yankees won 103 games to win the AL East on their way to winning the World Series. Looking back at the past decade, it has been pretty much a Yankees prop as well in all years aside from 2001, where Seattle were the sole +100.5 game winner, if the over has cashed then the Yankees also won greater than 100.5 games. The other only teams to hit over 100.5 were Oakland in 2002, the Cardinals in 2004 and Atlanta in 2002/2003 and it would seem most unlikely for any of those teams to be that dominant in 2010.
Also, it doesn't appear that the Yankees will be as dominant either. PECOTA have them with a predicted 92-70 record which only puts them 3rd in the AL East and out of playoff contention with Boston winning the division with a 98-64 record and Tampa Bay grabbing the wild card berth with one less win. And with three competitive teams in the AL East, that reduces the probability of one of them dominating sufficiently to win over 100.5 games although it's the clear favorite that if the over hits, it will be hit by one of these teams. Looking around the other divisions, PECOTA only predicts one other team with 90+ wins which is the St. Louis Cardinals who are listed at 91-69.
While analysing the team wins prop, it is a relatively simplistic model in such way that you can look at the expected number of wins and apply a degree of statistical variation and then ascertain whether the variance gives a good enough chance for the over to hit. Specifically with team wins, the trade element is not such a factor since if the top teams are performing well, that is with a large divisional lead and on course to hit or better their predicted number of wins, they are less likely to go for a blockbuster trade which would increase the probability of hitting over 100.5 games. Rather, it would be teams just out of contention who would use the trade to see some playing time in October even then, it's even less likely that these teams would be winning over 100.5 games.
The teams who have the biggest unknowns, with regard to the effect of trades, on hitting the over are the poorly performing teams, and that prop is the number of losses rather than wins. Simply put, if a team is out of contention by the trade deadline date, there is a fair chance that they decide to rebuild, trade away their aces and increase the probability of a bad team losing more that they would normally, getting worse and hitting the loss over.
The O/U for losses is set at 101.5 where the over would have cashed six times in the last ten years and in both 2008 and 2009 where the worst team was the same team as the Washington Nationals managed 102 losses in 2008 and 103 last season. With a PECOTA prediction of 78-84 in 2010, taking into account a number of signings made in the offseason, it seems that they might avoid the MLB's worst hat trick. Don't count out the Pittsburgh Pirates either who have been rebuilding/hopeless since 1993 and who have a PECOTA prediction of 71-91 this coming season.
.
