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In part 3 of our look at Pinnacle's 2010 MLB props we get to the first section of the pitcher props; the wins and the losses. Looking back over the last 10 seasons, the current line for wins (O/U 20.5) has cashed 7 times and the line for losses (O/U 17.5) has cashed 8 times - however neither of these bets cashed in the 2009 season.
The thing with wins is that you've got to be a good pitcher to hit the over and the thing with losses you don't have to be so bad to hit that over. Zach Duke of the Pittsburgh Pirates came away with 16 losses in 2009 while sporting a 4.06 ERA whereas Scott Feldman of the Texas Rangers enjoyed 17 wins with a 4.08 ERA. Of course all teams are different, all ballparks are different and schedules are different and the win/loss column is over rated as a statistic but it's not always the bad pitchers who come out worse with this prop.
One strong predictor of a pitchers W/L total, before variations in pitching performance is introduced, is the W/L total of the team and that seems to be leaning to the under for the loss prop. Last season there were 5 teams with 65 or less wins but the latest PECOTA predictions for the 2010 season have no teams predicted such a low win total; in fact there is only one team with a projected loss total under 70. Unfortunately, for our Canadian readers, that team is the Toronto Blue Jays with a predicted 69 wins to put them in the cellar of the AL East. With teams predicted to be more evenly matched this season, it would assume that a bad pitcher on an average side would not get the necessary starts to get 18+ losses. The Marcel, CHONE and Fan models predict maximum losses as 13, 12 and 13 respectively and it should be noted that the worst offenders are predicted to be average performers on offensively poor sides (Zach Duke, Barry Zito, Bronson Arroyo). The under looks like the bet here but at the -154 available last month rather than the -208 available today.
Moving on to the win prop, the Marcel model reads like a Cy Young ballot slip with CC Sabathia, Adam Wainwright, Felix Hernandez, Roy Halladay, Josh Beckett and Justin Verlander all predicted for 14-15 wins each. The CHONE model has Halladay the win leader with 16 and even the Fan model only goes as high as 18 for Halladay, Verlander and Sabathia. However, it should be noted that these are predictions of the mean and so positive (negative) random variation can increase (decrease) those figures, in fact the only 21+ winner in the last 4 years was Cliff Lee who experienced significant positive variance compared to previous seasons. In a AL East where the Yankees are expected to take a step back in 2010 it would seem to put Sabathia out of the equation but a healthy Chris Carpenter and Halladay pitching for a competitive team in the NL might tip them over 20 wins.
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The thing with wins is that you've got to be a good pitcher to hit the over and the thing with losses you don't have to be so bad to hit that over. Zach Duke of the Pittsburgh Pirates came away with 16 losses in 2009 while sporting a 4.06 ERA whereas Scott Feldman of the Texas Rangers enjoyed 17 wins with a 4.08 ERA. Of course all teams are different, all ballparks are different and schedules are different and the win/loss column is over rated as a statistic but it's not always the bad pitchers who come out worse with this prop.
One strong predictor of a pitchers W/L total, before variations in pitching performance is introduced, is the W/L total of the team and that seems to be leaning to the under for the loss prop. Last season there were 5 teams with 65 or less wins but the latest PECOTA predictions for the 2010 season have no teams predicted such a low win total; in fact there is only one team with a projected loss total under 70. Unfortunately, for our Canadian readers, that team is the Toronto Blue Jays with a predicted 69 wins to put them in the cellar of the AL East. With teams predicted to be more evenly matched this season, it would assume that a bad pitcher on an average side would not get the necessary starts to get 18+ losses. The Marcel, CHONE and Fan models predict maximum losses as 13, 12 and 13 respectively and it should be noted that the worst offenders are predicted to be average performers on offensively poor sides (Zach Duke, Barry Zito, Bronson Arroyo). The under looks like the bet here but at the -154 available last month rather than the -208 available today.
Moving on to the win prop, the Marcel model reads like a Cy Young ballot slip with CC Sabathia, Adam Wainwright, Felix Hernandez, Roy Halladay, Josh Beckett and Justin Verlander all predicted for 14-15 wins each. The CHONE model has Halladay the win leader with 16 and even the Fan model only goes as high as 18 for Halladay, Verlander and Sabathia. However, it should be noted that these are predictions of the mean and so positive (negative) random variation can increase (decrease) those figures, in fact the only 21+ winner in the last 4 years was Cliff Lee who experienced significant positive variance compared to previous seasons. In a AL East where the Yankees are expected to take a step back in 2010 it would seem to put Sabathia out of the equation but a healthy Chris Carpenter and Halladay pitching for a competitive team in the NL might tip them over 20 wins.
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