Obamas numbers and Intrade

[Potato]

good afternoon choo

 

[reno cool]

I've always felt if I had to get a job that would be my likely option.

 

[choo]

hi potato.

we need this weather to clear up in montreal.

 

[gregm]

Numbers are pretty interesting to watch today, I really think Ryan was a questionable choice. His biggest philosophical influence was Ayn Rand but he is extremely pro life and socially conservative? Democrats have tons of ammo in both of his budgets, one had him abolishing the corporate income tax, estate tax, and the inheritance tax, and still not reducing alot of big spending. His ideas on Medicare vouchers and privatizing social security are going to really be seized on by Biden and the Obama administration. I dont know if I agree about Ryan dominating the debates with Biden, Biden is a seasoned politician and 69 years old, Ryan is only 42 years old and Biden is going to really go after these budgets Ryan proposed.

Ryan may not be as bad a choice as an Edwards or a Palin, and you have to wonder how much vice presidential nominees can hurt a ticket if Quayle didnt lose the Bush ticket, but this little Republican bounce should fade in a few days. Wish the Republicans had of gone with Christie.

This is a really good article from the new york times about the various models and the presidential race, mentions betfair, intrade and sportsbooks in the article. These numbers and tables are from the new york times article from august 7th

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/08/07/models-models-everywhere/

: republicans to win election +174 betfair today

Romney +154 pinnacle

 

[rito]

-194/+178 pinny. i thought it would go there but not this soon. SBRJohn still waiting for it to move to evens.

 

[Saulty]

If Walker had to make a living gambling he could be broke. I'm a die hard Falcons fan but when I know they will lose a game I bet against them. Walker won't bet Obama regardless of odds.

 

[gregm]

I was looking at betfairs numbers today, wish the volume on betfair and Obama at 1.55-1.57 were higher. -194 tonight on pinny still looks good to me though, prediction markets at 5.74 a share on intrade.

Best blog on elections if anyone is gambling on the outcome.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

 

[gregm]

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/08/16/aug-16-why-im-not-buying-the-romney-rally/

Great post about the romney/ryan rally and alot of the forecast models , doesnt put much stock in the Ryan bounce on intrade.

 

[choo]

silver's cbb model is hilarious

 

[gregm]

I havent seen any of his models for cbb, I first read him on baseball prospectus and he got alot of criticism from tango and others but in terms of his models for politics, his numbers in the 2008 and 2010 elections were impressive.

 

[rito]

-359/321 at pinny.

lesson as always is if sbrjohn is on one side, it's the wrong one.

 

[Matty]

hi potato.

we need this weather to clear up in montreal.

What was that aboat?

 

[betplom]

What was that aboat?

something about the weather in Montreal.


plommer thinks it may be tennis bet related.

 

[MonkeyF0cker]

Rogers Cup.

 

[MonkeyF0cker]

-359/321 at pinny.

lesson as always is if sbrjohn is on one side, it's the wrong one.

Obama pulled ahead in a few swing state polls.

 

[Saulty]

-359/321 at pinny.

lesson as always is if sbrjohn is on one side, it's the wrong one.

doesn't he work for the books? so he would try to push the sheeple to bet Romney when he was +150 fooling them it had value.

 

[Saulty]

Obama pulled ahead in a few swing state polls.

I was watching Fox news at the gym last night and they showed the latest poll had Romney ahead 47% and Obama 46%. I was laughing because Romney wouldn't be a 4 to 1 dog to win it according to the odds. It's like the people on ESPN who say two teams have a 50% chance to win even though one team is 10 points dog.

 

[Matty]

plommer thinks it may be tennis bet related.

Rogers Cup.

Aaah. Thought for a second that choo had been to a concert or festival in Montreal.

You boys and your sports.