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NBA scoring distribution changes?

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rito

rito

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Anyone know why 1st halves are now higher scoring than 2nd halves. This started last year 2009-2010 and continues this year. They were mostly even before.

Median 1st half total and scoring in 08-09 was 99, 2nd half also 99

Last year that changes to 101 and 98.5 for the totals and 102 and 98 for scoring (i assume the market took a while to catch on).

Trend continues this year.

Rule change or something? Scoring is up.
 
That is a strange trend which I was not aware of. I have no explanation.

I wonder if I can use that?

I am working full-fledged on baseball now so I won't be getting back to hoops for new research for quite awhile but I will remember that.
 
durito
Anyone know why 1st halves are now higher scoring than 2nd halves. This started last year 2009-2010 and continues this year. They were mostly even before.

Median 1st half total and scoring in 08-09 was 99, 2nd half also 99

Last year that changes to 101 and 98.5 for the totals and 102 and 98 for scoring (i assume the market took a while to catch on).

Trend continues this year.

Rule change or something? Scoring is up.
Click to expand...

It's not a rule change as far as I know. I believe it has to do with pace, but I can look at it a bit later.
 
Players playing with more energy in the first half to take a big lead and slow down the pace in 2nd half and rest players. So you need to compare the blowout rate of this year vs the 1st half scoring surge and you will notice there is a direct correlation.
 
durito
Anyone know why 1st halves are now higher scoring than 2nd halves. This started last year 2009-2010 and continues this year. They were mostly even before.

Median 1st half total and scoring in 08-09 was 99, 2nd half also 99

Last year that changes to 101 and 98.5 for the totals and 102 and 98 for scoring (i assume the market took a while to catch on).

Trend continues this year.

Rule change or something? Scoring is up.
Click to expand...

One of the more famous pros supposedly made MMs where this does not apply. Unfortunately the market caught up, and the coach it applied to just quit.
 
It's actually a combination of things, Durito. Offensive efficiency (points per possession) peaks in the second quarter, decreases significantly in the third quarter, with a slight uptick in the fourth (more FT and 3PT attempts - the 3PT attempts almost negate the increased FT attempts). The pace (number of possessions) decreases as the game goes on. Shooting percentages fall as the game goes on. This is especially true of 3PT attempts. Also, fast break and assist rates tail off at the end of the game. I'm guessing that the market simply caught up.
 
MonkeyF0cker
It's actually a combination of things, Durito. Offensive efficiency (points per possession) peaks in the second quarter, decreases significantly in the third quarter, with a slight uptick in the fourth (more FT and 3PT attempts - the 3PT attempts almost negate the increased FT attempts). The pace (number of possessions) decreases as the game goes on. Shooting percentages fall as the game goes on. This is especially true of 3PT attempts. Also, fast break and assist rates tail off at the end of the game.
Click to expand...

Why is this only happening recently or I am missing something in past years?
 
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