Monday Mud 12/6/10

[wal66]

Ok Muddy, I wasn't for certain we would start this early but after capping and looking at the lines I have 4 hockey plays that appear to be good options for Mud Play's. I don't plan on overworking you now until Christmas but when there is solid edge (at least from my perspective) we have to take advantage.

Mud Play Options:

Option #1: New Jersey Devils +190
Option #2: New Jersey/Pittsburgh UNDER 6 -115
Option #3: Toronto/Washington UNDER 5.5 -130
Option #4: San Jose/Detroit OVER 5.5 -120

Let's do this Muddy!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[Mudcat]

I definitely like this

Option #2: New Jersey/Pittsburgh UNDER 6 -115

but it doesn't look right. Maybe you have the line transposed with the Washington game?

 

[wal66]

Muddy, you are correct. So does this mean you like New Jersey/Pitt UNDER 5.5 or Toronto/Washington UNDER 6? Or does it mean you would like New Jersey/Pitt UNDER 6 but since that is unavailable you have no choice?

 

[Mudcat]

I will go with tor/WASH under 6 sir.

 

[roguejuror]

We have started these Christmas run-up Mud Plays with a hiccup. Concentrate wally.

 

[wal66]

RJ, I reminded Muddy to get plenty of sleep in preparation but I didn't follow my own advice.
RJ, it matters very little as the 3 totals here are all solid.

 

[wal66]

Today's Mud Play:

Toronto/Washington UNDER 6

 

[roguejuror]

Later on closer to macth time I'll tell you if I'm on or against it. Most likely I'll be on. Good luck.

 

[wal66]

Normally it is automatic for me to bet the OVER on 6 and UNDER on 5 but in this case there is some very good numbers to suggest the UNDER even with the total set at 6. My personal fav tonight is New Jersey Pitt UNDER and New Jersey winning outright 2-1.

 

[Mudcat]

In simplistic terms, I like the UNDER in Pittsburgh as well. But at -130 I don't see it as value. It is one of those things. As a forum bet where you either win or lose then forget it, it is a good bet. There is a better than 50/50 you come away as a winner on your posted play.

But I always think in terms of long-term real betting where my stats show that, even though you win on more occasions than you lose, laying -130 on that UNDER will grind you down and cost you $$$ in the long run.

 

[wal66]

Muddy, I would tell you that the Mud Plays are intended to be the game with the highest potential for winning not ROI but I'll not do that. You are a pro Muddy and you have to be true to what works for you. I don't want to change who you are Muddy, I merely want to get caught in your magic.

 

[roguejuror]

Getting caught in the magic of Mudcat is part of the essence of Gamelive.

 

[Mudcat]

Oh I've got magic alright. Magic up the wazoo.

 

[Matty]

Mudcat's wazoo also dispenses large amounts of magic. *cue picture of human brochette featuring Muddy*