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Kentucky Derby

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MonkeyF0cker

Mean People Suck
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Jan 27, 2010
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Values:

3 - Revolutionary (10/1) - A deep closer that could threaten late if he finds a hole. This horse fits Borel's style. Don't be surprised to see him coming up the rail to win another Derby.

5 - Normandy Invasion (12/1) - Should stay near the pace to the middle of the pack. A closer that almost chased down Verrazano in the Wood Memorial. Had the race been another furlong as the Derby is, he probably would have won it.

11 - Lines of Battle (30/1) - This horse is a bit of a mystery. I don't have much data to work with for him. Most of his races come from overseas, but he was shipped here for the BC Juvenile at Santa Anita last November running a very unimpressive 8th. However, he won a $2 million stakes race at Dubai in March. This horse could be considered a contender or a throw out. Not entirely sure how I'll play him yet, but horses shipped overseas for races tend not to fare well.

12 - Itsmyluckyday (15/1) - Didn't run a very good Florida Derby. Took the lead at the 1/8th pole but lost it to a driving Orb who passed him with ease. If he's one of the only closers to find a hole, he could steal the race considering his form prior to the Florida Derby.

14 - Verrazano (4/1) - Speed horse that is undefeated. Won the Wood Memorial and the Tampa Derby, but was almost caught at the Wood by both Normandy Invasion and Vyjack. He certainly has the potential to win the Derby, but if he goes to the lead, I don't think he can last. If he sits off the pace a little, he has a good shot.

My top pick:

8 - Goldencents (5/1) - Another speed horse that drew off in an impressive win at the Santa Anita Derby with an up and coming Kevin Krigger on the mount. Todd Pletcher is putting blinkers on Palace Malice which may be the biggest problem for this horse. Palace Malice is another speed horse which will likely be pushing the pace and hopefully Krigger can hold Goldencents from running with him and burning him out.

Good luck.
 
First race was 10:30 arch. Derby is at 6:2something.

MF I don't see much value in Revolutionary at current odds. I saw that Borel pulled the 3 hole, perfect for him and the horse but it got bet down accordingly... Wished it woulda stayed up above 5/1.
 
Just had The Pizza Man (#5) in race 3.

Sucks that interference only disqualifies the perpetrator... doesn't put the victim in a better place...

Then again I guess it would be impossible to tell what would have happened had the victim not been interfered with.
 
My favorite is Overanalyze. There's no reason to exclude the favorite though if you like sure things I think Orb finishes in the top 3 more than likely, although I didn't bet him to win. Overanalyze has proven he can lie in stalking position and pounce as the front-runners begin to get weary in the stretch. And Overanalyze has overcome trouble in several of his races. I like that. This ability is needed to survive the bumping and maneuvering that goes on in the Derby.

There is of course a bunch of Numerology in play here as well, but I've never used it to cap a horse race so here goes:

Took all to win:

4 Horse Golden Soul
6 Horse Mylute
9 Horse Overanalyze
 
My favorite is Overanalyze. There's no reason to exclude the favorite though if you like sure things I think Orb finishes in the top 3 more than likely, although I didn't bet him to win. Overanalyze has proven he can lie in stalking position and pounce as the front-runners begin to get weary in the stretch. And Overanalyze has overcome trouble in several of his races. I like that. This ability is needed to survive the bumping and maneuvering that goes on in the Derby.

There is of course a bunch of Numerology in play here as well, but I've never used it to cap a horse race so here goes:

Took all to win:

4 Horse Golden Soul
6 Horse Mylute
9 Horse Overanalyze

Overanalyze ran an Arkansas Derby two seconds worse than Bodemeister last year. I don't think any horse from the Arkansas Derby has much of a chance in this race. Mylute already lost to Revolutionary and was beaten by Goldencents by three lengths. I don't even know how Golden Soul got in this race. Although, crazy things can happen in a field of this size.

Good luck.
 
First race was 10:30 arch. Derby is at 6:2something.

MF I don't see much value in Revolutionary at current odds. I saw that Borel pulled the 3 hole, perfect for him and the horse but it got bet down accordingly... Wished it woulda stayed up above 5/1.

Agreed. Just ran these against ML odds. Didn't look at the tote.

This slop will change some things for me as well.
 
Values:

3 - Revolutionary (10/1) - A deep closer that could threaten late if he finds a hole. This horse fits Borel's style. Don't be surprised to see him coming up the rail to win another Derby.

5 - Normandy Invasion (12/1) - Should stay near the pace to the middle of the pack. A closer that almost chased down Verrazano in the Wood Memorial. Had the race been another furlong as the Derby is, he probably would have won it.

11 - Lines of Battle (30/1) - This horse is a bit of a mystery. I don't have much data to work with for him. Most of his races come from overseas, but he was shipped here for the BC Juvenile at Santa Anita last November running a very unimpressive 8th. However, he won a $2 million stakes race at Dubai in March. This horse could be considered a contender or a throw out. Not entirely sure how I'll play him yet, but horses shipped overseas for races tend not to fare well.

12 - Itsmyluckyday (15/1) - Didn't run a very good Florida Derby. Took the lead at the 1/8th pole but lost it to a driving Orb who passed him with ease. If he's one of the only closers to find a hole, he could steal the race considering his form prior to the Florida Derby.

14 - Verrazano (4/1) - Speed horse that is undefeated. Won the Wood Memorial and the Tampa Derby, but was almost caught at the Wood by both Normandy Invasion and Vyjack. He certainly has the potential to win the Derby, but if he goes to the lead, I don't think he can last. If he sits off the pace a little, he has a good shot.

My top pick:

8 - Goldencents (5/1) - Another speed horse that drew off in an impressive win at the Santa Anita Derby with an up and coming Kevin Krigger on the mount. Todd Pletcher is putting blinkers on Palace Malice which may be the biggest problem for this horse. Palace Malice is another speed horse which will likely be pushing the pace and hopefully Krigger can hold Goldencents from running with him and burning him out.

Good luck.

Throwing out the 11.

Dutching all five of the above horses and the 16 - Orb. Six total.

Longshots are heavily overbet in this race.

Heavy on the 8.
 
My 32-1 comes in 2nd not bad I guess, gotta learn to play those longshots to place or show. I do this every year.

139th derby 1+3+9=13 (1+3=4) so 4 energy. Golden Soul in the 4th position. Jockey born 9/11/1973 (9+11+1+9+7+3=40 so is also a 4 life path. Race on the 4th of May. That's the only reason I picked Golden Soul.