Here's Robert analysis as these have been banned at SBR
-Unit Play. Take #832 Columbia (+8.5) over Harvard (7 p.m., Friday, Jan. 29)
0.5-Unit Play. FIRST HALF: Take #832 Columbia (+4.5) over Harvard (7 p.m., Friday, Jan. 29)
Note: This is our Ivy League Game of the Year. It’s a little smaller than our normal GOTY pick. But then again, it IS the Ivy League.
You want to talk about Look Ahead Games, how about this one for Harvard. The Crimson takes on Cornell tomorrow in Ithaca in a game that will give one of them the early inside track to the Ivy League title. That game means all that much more considering that with no conference tourney the regular season champ secures the league’s automatic berth. On top of that, this Cornell-Harvard game is being billed as one of the biggest games in Ivy League history.
But before Harvard can play that game they have to go on the road against one of the “worst” teams in the Ivy League. Now, Columbia is tied for last place in the Ivy with an 0-2 record. The reason they are 0-2? They have played Cornell twice. And two blowout losses have really painted an unclear picture of who this team is. Most prognosticators had Columbia as the No. 4 team in the Ivy, which means that while they are not great they are no pushover and certainly not the worst team in the league. But, again, their value is actually high because of blowout losses to the best team in the conference. This team has lost four straight games, however their No. 2 and No. 3 scorers – their point guard and their best forward, respectively – missed multiple games and weeks of practice. Both are healthy and ready to run this week. With a full squad, Columbia was only down nine in The Dome at Syracuse earlier in the year and played with the Orange for about 25 minutes.
Conversely, Harvard is off two wins over Dartmouth – the most recent of which was only a four-point win at Dartmouth after beating them by 29 in the previous meeting – which really is the worst team in the conference. That has inflated their own ego. They have some nice performances in their nonconference schedule but I still think that they could be in trouble tonight.
Four of Harvard’s top five scorers are freshmen or sophomores and their average experience of just 1.20 years makes them one of the least experienced teams in college basketball (No. 310 of 342). That tells me that they are completely susceptible to The Look Ahead Game. Also, when you consider that Harvard has to play Cornell on such a quick turnaround (Friday at Columbia, Saturday at Cornell) you know that means that they had to work on their game plan against Cornell this week. And which do you think the players were more worried about, getting ready for Columbia or their huge game with Cornell?
You can’t overlook the New York vs. Boston angle here, as it doesn’t matter which sport: players from these cities don’t like one another. On top of that, Columbia has had a lot of success against Harvard recently. They have actually won five of the last six meetings and are 4-1 SU in the last five games at Columbia in this series. Columbia is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings and other than a 20-point Columbia blowout in 2007 the average margin of the last nine meetings is just 6.7 points. The road team is just 3-7 SU in the last 10.
Another good sign: there isn’t much action on this game but 80 percent of it is on Harvard. Yet the line is dipping. That’s a straight reverse line movement. And on such a small amount of bets (around 500 by my tracking site) that is significant to me.
Finally, Columbia may be the last team that Harvard wants to face for another reason. Columbia is No. 5 in the country in 3-point shooting. They are a team that loves to attack from deep and three of their top four scorers are guards that shoot 54.2, 42.1 and 42.6 percent from 3-point land. If those guys are knocking down shots from the outside then things could get tough for Harvard. The Crimson are a team that wants to pound the ball inside. They are No. 302 in the nation in 3-point shooting and all they do is pound it on the interior. That will make them more consistent. But if Columbia is getting 3 and Harvard is getting 2 then this becomes an issue. Columbia has been playing well on the defensive end lately and they have three big men in their top six players (four averaging 13 minutes or more) so they have some bodies to throw at Harvard. They won’t stop the Crimson on the inside but they should compete.
Harvard may just win by a blowout here and that’s the only way I don’t see these points holding up. But if they get up big early I think the Crimson start to look ahead even more while Columbia can fire its way back into it. If Columbia gets hot early then they could get some confidence and really put the squeeze on. There is a sellout crowd and I think that the home crowd will be a little fired up to face a team knocking on the door of the Top 25. (Harvard has received a vote in three straight weeks.)
Regardless, considering the incredible look ahead angle and the fact that this is a boatload of points for a young conference road favorite to lay I will roll the dice here and go with the Lions to not only cover but to threaten the outright victory while Tommy Amaker gives us another vintage Amaker collapse. If we lose, I’ll be right back against Harvard on Saturday in Cornell, as well as playing Columbia against the Crimson on Feb. 20 – the day after Harvard hosts Cornell and a great letdown/revenge situation. So it’s either a win today or setting ourselves up for some scores down the road. I’ll take a win today, 64-58, Harvard.
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