Hooligans Sportsbook

Implied Probability

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wal66

wal66

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Ok Durito, I am trying to show my dedication to this so here is my homework for today.

RebateWager
Florida +120  Implied Probability 43.58%
Toronto -140  Implied Probability 56.42%

Pinnacle
Florida +135  Implied Probability 41.76%
Toronto -146  Implied Probability 58.24%


RebateWager
Buffalo +100  Implied Probability 47.82%
Philly -120  Implied Probability 52.18%

Pinnacle
Buffalo +108  Implied Probability 47.14%
Philly -117  Implied Probability 52.86%


RebateWager
Edmonton +145  Implied Probability 39.6%
Calgary -165  Implied Probability 60.4%

Pinnacle
Edmonton +144  Implied Probability 40.21%
Calgary -156  Implied Probability 59.79%


RebateWager
Anaheim +136  Implied Probability 42.02%
Dallas -148  Implied Probability 58.48%

Pinnacle
Anaheim +136  Implied Probability 41.52%
Dallas -185  Implied Probability 58.48%


RebateWager
Colorado +165  Implied Probability 36.67%
Vancouver -185  Implied Probability 63.23%

Pinnacle +168  Implied Probability 36.59%
Vancouver -183  Implied Probability 63.41%
 
So I'm just pulling this one out as an example.

RebateWager
Colorado +165  Implied Probability 36.67%
Vancouver -185  Implied Probability 63.23%

Pinnacle +168  Implied Probability 36.59%
Vancouver -183  Implied Probability 63.41%

I am using this one because they are essentially the same at both books. So I have the math portion of figuring out the Implied Probability but what's implied? Dumb question but is it implied that Vancouver has a 63.41% advantage of winning just this game or is it implied that if these teams played this game 100 times Vancouver should win 63.41% of times?
 
Scholar this isn't about RebateWager, I simply used it as an example cause that is where I have an account. I realize there are plenty of options but I have just 2. Actually though earlier today I was talking to Pavy about a soccer match and Pinnacle had the line at -118 and RebateWager had the line on the same team +100.

Everything involved with this is brand new to me. I have always been given a bookies line and I bet it or I didn't. I bet it based on what I knew or thought I knew about the game. I have no experience or knowledge about the stuff I am trying to learn. In my daily life I deal with % removal and % or capacity flow but nothing ever along the lines of statistical analysis.

When these guys explain things I have to then go and research what they are saying so I can understand it because they speak like they are talking to someone like minded. When I can't find the answer to the reply I have been given through Google searches I have to either let it go or ask a different way. It exposes my ignorance to the world but if that is what it takes to try and gain a little knowledge then so be it.
 
Matt Rain
Ask yourself what the difference is between the two.
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Matty if I play Vancouver and it wins 63 times out of a 100 I win $6300 at $100 a game. I lose $6771 with them losing only 37 times out of the 100 so I lose $471 that way. However if I play them in one game and it's the right night to play them I win $100.

So long a long term guy would not bet this game. A handicapper who feels he has done a good job and has a feel for the team in this match-up disregards the long term expectations and would most likely bet it anyways.
 
Durito, you have a precious little daughter who you will at some point have to teach things too. She will probably have a better grasp of comprehension than I do but you still will have to take things slow with her at first. Consider me good practice for her.
 
Wally, I was just being pithy. I'm sure RebateWager has its fair share of off numbers to bet if you're watching for them. That's all this exercise is designed to teach you, and it has nothing to do with the percentages you're calculating, as they're just another format for representing the same ratio as the sportsbook odds. Whether you say hello or hola, it's the same concept just a different language. If you're pricing chalk, look for bets less chalky (closer to +100) than Pinnacle, which represents the fair odds in this "homework." If you're pricing dogs, look for a bigger number than Pinny, +250 being a superior bet to +240. If you want to know why you're using Pinny for the fair odds, read up on the efficient market hypothesis.
 
wal66
So long a long term guy would not bet this game. A handicapper who feels he has done a good job and has a feel for the team in this match-up disregards the long term expectations and would most likely bet it anyways.
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Your previous question wasn't really dumb. The reasoning contained herein is, very much so.

Wally why do you start all these threads where you're asking questions you don't really want an answer to? When one reads between the lines, all your threads mean "Here's how I do things - I don't plan on changing a thing and I'd like you to validate my approach. Go ahead and tell me how I should do things - I will completely disregard your advice."

Every last one of them.

You can't predict the outcome of one game Wally. If you could, the best handicappers in the world would have an out-of-this-world ROI. They don't. They all grind a single-digit ROI%. Those who claim otherwise are full of baloney.
 
Matty, I realize that is the preception I may be giving off. While it is true like most people I will always default to what is natural or that which I am most comfortable with. However I ask the questions because I want to understand the process. While pure capping is the only thing I have ever done there is no guarantee that something else couldn't be incoporated into that. I want to learn Matty, if for no other reason than to better understand and follow threads when the pros are talking. Hearing their words but not understand the words it's all just noise. Trying to make the noise music Matty.
 
wal66
Matty if I play Vancouver and it wins 63 times out of a 100 I win $6300 at $100 a game. I lose $6771 with them losing only 37 times out of the 100 so I lose $471 that way. However if I play them in one game and it's the right night to play them I win $100.

So long a long term guy would not bet this game. A handicapper who feels he has done a good job and has a feel for the team in this match-up disregards the long term expectations and would most likely bet it anyways.
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Wally,

Pinnacle's #'s are considered the sharpest because they take all players, they have the highest limits and the lowest vig. They are in essence the market (at least a big part of it) for US sports. When millions of dollars are bet on a game much of it from professionals with very good models, syndicates with groups of people working for them, etc the lines tend to move very much towards fair value. There is a reason why all the other books copy their #'s. If rebate wager has a # off of pinny it's not intentional, it's because some tica is playing minesweeper instead of watching the screen. If SIA has an off #, it's intentional, but not how you think. They are not trying to balance unequal action, they are trying to get even more action at an inflated priced.

Given this info, when you go and take the pavy approach, and bet at a # worse than the market price because you think they will win you are essentially saying you are smarter than this entire market. Unless you have some sort of inside info that no one else possesses, forget it. (which is not to say that it is impossible to beat the closing line in major markets, one of our frequent posters has a model that can do exactly that, but this sort of thing is well beyond my abilities and very difficult)
 
durito
Wally,

Pinnacle's #'s are considered the sharpest because they take all players, they have the highest limits and the lowest vig. They are in essence the market (at least a big part of it) for US sports. When millions of dollars are bet on a game much of it from professionals with very good models, syndicates with groups of people working for them, etc the lines tend to move very much towards fair value. There is a reason why all the other books copy their #'s. If rebate wager has a # off of pinny it's not intentional, it's because some tica is playing minesweeper instead of watching the screen. If SIA has an off #, it's intentional, but not how you think. They are not trying to balance unequal action, they are trying to get even more action at an inflated priced.

Given this info, when you go and take the pavy approach, and bet at a # worse than the market price because you think they will win you are essentially saying you are smarter than this entire market. Unless you have some sort of inside info that no one else possesses, forget it.
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Wally, don't move on in your thinking until what durito just wrote makes perfect sense to you. It's spot on and crucial for you to understand before delving any deeper.
 
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