i figured out why i can't win at sports betting...durito should verify the numbers

[pico]

tally up the win % for the last 5 months and i got the following numbers:

total # bets 693
total # of wins 359

winning % 51.8

average odds at a good book (if all the bets are placed at the best numbers): -111 (which is 52.63% implied probability)

average odds at a bad book: -133 (which is 57.14% implied prob.)

so the book is getting 0.83%-5.34% of all the bets i placed on average (depends on the numbers)

No point to bet anymore.


Now if I fade myself, then my win% will be 48.2%

average odds at a good book: -100 (which is 50% implied prob)

average odds at a bad book: -105 (which is 51.28% implied prob)

the book is getting 1.8%-3.08% of all the bets i placed on average.

still a loser.

 

[Swinging Johnson]

You need a professional. I'm here for you.

 

[reno cool]

Pico, you had this revelation last year.
good job keeping records though.

Whats stopping you from picking higher % of winners, or possibly shopping around for better prices?

 

[rito]

make better bets

 

[rito]

sweet 1000th post

 

[pico]

make better bets

i am not a pro like you. i play like an average joe

 

[Swinging Johnson]

sweet 1000th post

Well done! 999 more than the days that you've actually worked.

 

[kato]

sweet 1000th post

congrats and the only blog post

 

[pico]

Pico, you had this revelation last year.
good job keeping records though.

Whats stopping you from picking higher % of winners, or possibly shopping around for better prices?

those are averages. i do take plus money odds, but over a large sample size i am just pretty average. exchanges doesn't have prop bets, so it the "good odds" average seems like dime line odds.

 

[Bread]

Pico what are you going to do? You're a loser whether you bet yourself or fade. Your girl is coming home with hickeys but you're holding out hope that it will work itself out. You live close to poster wtf.

I'm praying for you brother.

 

[rito]

Well done! 999 more than the days that you've actually worked.

What's work?

 

[Bread]

What's work?

Changing diapers and dealing with spanish mother in laws.

 

[rito]

dealing with spanish mother in laws.

:theshrink:

 

[pico]

Pico what are you going to do? You're a loser whether you bet yourself or fade. Your girl is coming home with hickeys but you're holding out hope that it will work itself out. You live close to poster wtf.

I'm praying for you brother.

i think wtf has more stable relationship than me.

 

[senco78]

I just suck.
no other mathmatical reason needed.

 

[roguejuror]

You live close to poster wtf.

actually pico have met with wtf

pico is my eyes and ears in kowloon and hki

 

[Bread]

Did he get lost in his giant jewfro and witty banter?

 

[roguejuror]

moldy why don't you let your hair grow like in the pic?