Horse Racing - Huge P6 Carryover

[Boner_18]

There's a fairly large Pick-6 (pick the winner of 6 races in a row) carryover jackpot at Aqueduct racetrack in NYC today. Occasionally when there's a jackpot like this a few of my horse racing buddies and I take a shot with a multi-horse ticket where we each throw in $100-200. Closest we've ever been was with 2 horses of a 12 horse field in the 6th and final leg to win either 120k or 150k (divided by our proportional contribution to the wager).

The pool should grow to about 1.2 million (guess) and a wager to cover all possible outcomes before there are scratches here today would cost $329,280. I guess if anyone buys an "all" ticket the jackpot will balloon over 1.2. Anyone wanna split it?

 

[FairWarning]

I think my last horse racing bet was the horse that was a lock in the Kentucky Derby, only to break its leg.

Tough sport to win at.

 

[Boner_18]

I just assume there are +EV wagers to be had in horse racing, like this P6. Maybe someone can confirm or deny this, MonkeyFocker? I know when there is a show-jumper/bridge-jumper who wagers a large sum on a favorite to show it creates +EV opportunities on other contenders to win. However, I agree - tough sport to win at. Lord knows I rarely do.

 

[MonkeyF0cker]

There are definitely +EV opportunities in horse racing.

As for this pick 6, it depends on how much the pool balloons. You'll get a lot of syndicates playing into the big carryovers. If the takeout in the daily addition to the pool exceeds the carryover, it's probably not worth playing since the whole carryover merely goes to the track takeout.

There are actually better opportunities when there aren't carryovers in certain pick 6's.

I didn't play the pick 6 today at Aqueduct.

 

[Boner_18]

Interesting. A bunch of us played, it was loaded with chalk, think a total pool of 3.3MM paid $2600 or something. We had 3x 5/6 and didn't even get our stake back @ a consolation payout of $41 per 5/6.

 

[reno cool]

They have p6 with no carryovers?
played a tri-super at a dog track a few times when they have the mandatory payout. Seems like there was so much action on the day that it only made it a marginal play. Yeah what you want in either case is less $ bet on the day you play it vs the carryover ...as monkey says. probably 25-30% takeout on those.
People who bet it when the pool is smallish and no mandatory payout are really getting raped : ...since part of that $ goes to the carryover.

 

[Tron]

I understood very little of this but it's a breath of fresh air to see a true sports betting thread here.

Well done, fellas.

:cheersbuddy:

 

[MrMonkey]

I understood very little of this but it's a breath of fresh air to see a true sports betting thread here.

Well done, fellas.

:cheersbuddy:

+1!