Does scoring change month-to-month in MLB?

[Mudcat]

Like does scoring tend to go up (or down) in late season with the September call-ups and changes in motivation and weather and whatnot?

I have seen a few theories kicking around.

I am going to do a bit of research on this today and get some concrete answers but I am wondering what you people might have to say. I'll post what I find.

 

[maxdalury]

I have the following data for average runs scored grouped by month, this doesn't include this year so far but is from 2000:

Runs Month
9.5624 4
9.4216 5
9.5438 6
9.6166 7
9.5355 8
9.4608 9

 

[Mudcat]

I said before I would get some concrete results. I should have said general results since my spreadsheets, while very accurate, have gaps. Using my data from 2007 to present, I get a similarly random distribution. It is debatable if you could call that a late season scoring bump as I have seen speculated. On Max's numbers which should be a much larger sample, I see no bump at all.

Scoring is down a fraction of a run per game in recent years as has been well documented. These Oct. stats don't include playoffs.


Month.....runs/gm..........# of games

Apr...........9.33.................840
May..........9.17.................946
Jun...........8.80.................813
Jul............9.10.................919
Aug..........9.57.................731
Sep/Oct....9.29.................642

 

[Bread]

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:

 

[Mudcat]

Average posted total for those games (from Pinnacle)


month......opener..........closer

Apr...........8.86.............8.75
May..........8.83.............8.81
Jun...........8.65.............8.59
Jul............8.67.............8.63
Aug..........8.71.............8.68
Sep/Oct....8.96.............8.91

 

[fiveteamer]

maxxy keep it up, I made a good choice.

 

[maxdalury]

Here is the full statistical summary of the totals with the median, I wouldnt expect to be any systematic mispricings based on month:

month mean sd 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% n
3 9.903226 4.975640 3 6 9 12 23 31
4 9.562363 4.611831 1 6 9 12 29 3640
5 9.421583 4.590887 1 6 9 12 33 4170
6 9.543842 4.592953 1 6 9 12 33 4003
7 9.616612 4.730143 1 6 9 13 35 3949
8 9.535520 4.648959 1 6 9 12 36 4237
9 9.460765 4.649687 1 6 9 12 31 3976
10 8.956000 4.495654 1 6 8 12 23 250

 

[roguejuror]

maxxy keep it up, I made a good choice.

i agree