I would not call it a mistake. My system is telling me to play that UNDER.
The caveat is that I have been over-riding my system quite a bit this year when it tells me to play Arizona on an UNDER, and I have saved myself several units by doing that. Their bullpen is just atrocious. According to Covers, they are 35-16 OVERS versus UNDERS.
The Dodgers have been a bit of a roller-coaster.
On first glance, I don't think I will be playing that UNDER today. I think I will again over-ride my own model and do a no-play. But I need to take a closer look.
Looking at it strictly in terms of line movement, I don't understand what I am seeing. Despite the percentages saying the OVER is being pounded, the trend with the actual numbers make it seem more likely to go down to 8 than up to 9.
I really have no idea what to make of it but I couldn't call your move in that regard a mistake.
