Hooligans Sportsbook

Day #2 Baseball Play

  • Start date •
  • Replies
    17 Replies •
  • Views 1,121 Views
Follow
wal66

wal66

New Member
Since
Feb 1, 2010
Messages
11,716
Score
2
Tokens
0
I said I would do one game per day. Tried to get cute yesterday and make the play sound all system scientific like. Not the case today, today it'll sound like a chase but it's not. I'm pretty sure it's not.

Arizona -136

Also like but not betting

Yankees
Rangers/Mariners over 7.5
 
I don't know what to make of that Arizona game. Dbacks are an unpredictable team to begin with - and then they're starting a new pitcher over from the American League to boot. They have an astonishingly bad bullpen but then Washington has been crap on the road this year.


Dunno. Goog luck.
 
Muddy, I kind of lied to myself. This isn't really a chase play but it is a get even play. I had a good spot lastnight or so I thought with Arizona and I came up short. Tonight looks to be not as good as lastnight and yet I am passing on potentially better options on the board to play Arizona.

Sometimes my stubburness is all things not college football really get me in trouble. No-one to blame but myself though.

Muddy I will take your good luck and I will print it out, I will wrap it in tin foil and seal it with orange candle wax and keep it in my front left pocket or my favorite pair of shorts.
 
Mudcat
I don't know what to make of that Arizona game. Dbacks are an unpredictable team to begin with - and then they're starting a new pitcher over from the American League to boot. They have an astonishingly bad bullpen but then Washington has been crap on the road this year.


Dunno. Goog luck.
Click to expand...

Muddy it sounds like you actually think about games.

I always thought you had some program that spits out a number and tells you what to bet.

Like a robot.
 
fiveteamer
Muddy it sounds like you actually think about games.

I always thought you had some program that spits out a number and tells you what to bet.

Like a robot.
Click to expand...


Not exactly. I do have systems that coldly look at numbers and spit out games to bet. There are situations where I just place those system bets without thinking. Like for example college hoops where I don't have a clue who all those damn teams are.

But with MLB this year I have been applying some sports-based judgment and overriding certain bets. And I have been tracking those overrides on a spreadsheet to make sure I am actually helping myself. It turns out I am.

So with MLB, I look at my system plays more as a very good pond to fish from than the law. My judgment has value. I am not as dumb as I look!

Plus, even if I was just blindly placing all my bets, I still feel that some sports knowledge combined with knowledge of bettor psychology helps with forecasting line movement and whatnot.

So I am not just a machine. I AM A HUMAN BEING!!!
 
Yea Muddy, I remember you saying with CBB you had very little insight knowledge of teams and was all numbers. Love CBB and no expert but a few conferences I know about.

Maybe I could run past you some of my plays and you could tell me how they look by your numbers when the time comes? Do you start betting CBB as soon as season starts?
 
I could probably do that MrM. I doubt I would be the greatest resource to you and I wish I had something better to recommend. I suspect the majority of the time I would just be saying, "It's a no-play for me and looks like a coinflip to go either way." But we can talk about it.

I am doing some intense research on NCAAB 1st and 2nd halves right now and expect to have a lot of results in by November. If you play those, we should have more to talk about.

I do not bet from the start of the season. Like all sports, I start about 10-20% of the way into the schedule. In the case of NCAAB, that's about 8 games. Last year, I started betting on Nov. 29th. And I don't bet any of those early season tourneys all over the place nor the late season tourneys.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.