Hooligans Sportsbook

Daft....

  • Start date •
  • Replies
    18 Replies •
  • Views 1,602 Views
Follow
It's a very meh trade for the Marlins but Dan Uggla demanded 5yr/$71 million and Dan Uggla can go fuck himself if he thinks he's worth that.

Dan Uggla is not Chase Utley. It will be funny when Atlanta doesn't give him the $71 million he wanted from Florida. My gut tells me he'll be a one and done in ATL.

Infante does have some upside. Since 2007, he has the highest BA w/ RISP in the Majors (Mauer and The Machine are #2 and #3 on that list). And FLA's bullpen will be drastically better than last year.

At the end of the day ATL got the best of this trade but it's times like these that I like the Marlins FO because they don't hand out 5yr/$71's to 30 year old Rule 5's that have a -glove.
 
I'm not happy about losing Infante by any means. I loved that guy for us. I'm interested to see how he does as an every day player and wish him success. He was our best hitter the last two seasons. Maybe Prado was better, but it was a tossup between the two imo. Dunn is an intriguing young power arm in the bully too. We had an excess of those though with Venters especially.

I'd rather the Braves put Uggla in LF and keep Prado at 2B instead of the opposite which they have said will be the plan. He is exactly what that lineup needed though - a power RH bat to put between either Chipper or Heyward at 3 and McCann at 5.
 
Jello
Career super utility guy and a decent LH reliever for the current Silver Slugger winning 2B who hit 33 HRs last season (.287 BA).
Click to expand...

He's eligible for free agency after the 2011 season and he rejected a 4 year/$48 million extension so the option was to trade or wait until the end of the season. At the end of the season, the Marlins could have offered arbitration, which he would surely reject, and so they would have got two draft picks since he is almost certainly going to be a Type A free agent. I can't help thinking that the expected value (bearing in mind the upside from the picks in what is widely considered to be a high class 2011 draft) from those two draft picks would be worth a lot more than Dunn/Infante. Also, the return would surely have been a lot higher come the trade deadline when there would be any number of teams willing to overpay for a slugger like that for a push into the playoffs.
 
Polaroid dropping some knowledge. Yeah, the Braves did well for themselves whether they sign him or not. Infante is a FA after the season also, and guys like Dunn are a dime a dozen. The Braves already have two (Venters and O'Flaherty) that they feel are better.

Polaroid, what did you mean about the 2011 draft? Is it supposed to be significantly loaded?
 
Good post, Polaroid. I'm not so sure I agree with your last sentence though. Larry Beinfest has kept the Marlins competitive (with the exception of last year) with a bottom 3 payroll for several years. If all he got for Uggla was Infante and Dunn then maybe you're overstating his expected value at the deadline in 2011.

If I'm not mistaken, Uggla even made his lofty demands of a 5yr/$71 public prior to negotiations which hurt both he and the Marlins FO.

Not to mention the public relations nightmare of letting Uggla go for two draft picks 7 months before opening a $600 million retractable roof stadium. Draft picks in baseball are not draft picks in the NBA (I know you know this I'm just pointing it out).
 
Jello
Yeah, the Braves did well for themselves whether they sign him or not.
Click to expand...

It appears that way now but these things have a habit of being very unpredictable. When the Marlins traded Cabrera/Willis to the Tigers, the centerpiece of that trade in terms of prospects was two former first round picks in Cameron Maybin and Andrew MIller and both of them were traded last week for very little return.

Jello
Polaroid, what did you mean about the 2011 draft? Is it supposed to be significantly loaded?
Click to expand...

It is meant to be from what I keep reading (although I don't know enough about that level of the game to know for myself). It's not like there are Roy Halladay types filling up the first round but if it's the equivalent of a #15 pick in 2010 being equivalent to a #30 pick in 2011 then compensatory draft picks suddenly become a lot more valuable.
 
Polaroid
It appears that way now but these things have a habit of being very unpredictable. When the Marlins traded Cabrera/Willis to the Tigers, the centerpiece of that trade in terms of prospects was two former first round picks in Cameron Maybin and Andrew MIller and both of them were traded last week for very little return.
Click to expand...

Well the difference between something like that and this move is that there are no prospects involved. Everybody knows what they are getting in this deal. I fully expect Infante to hit over or around .300 for an entire season if given the opportunity. But a 2nd baseman who can be your legitimate cleanup hitter is very rare in the history of the game.

As for the draft, I guess I was wondering if your knowledge went as deep as to know prospects coming up. The MLB draft is very speculative. As Daft pointed out and I'm sure you know as well, it's not like any other sport's draft. There is such a learning curve and time investment involved between the moment you draft someone and they even make it to your big league roster. Anything can happen in between - from injuries to trades to them just not panning out.
 
Daft
If all he got for Uggla was Infante and Dunn then maybe you're overstating his expected value at the deadline in 2011.
Click to expand...

Barring a season ending injury, which could always happen but is generally unlikely, I'm pretty sure that a deal with a at least a similar return to Infante/Dunn could have been got during the offseason or before the trade deadline. He's arbitration eligible (I think he made ~$8 million in 2010) which would, at a rough guess, pay him $10 million in 2011. Taking an average of his production in his five years in the big leagues and adding around 10% since he is naturally getting better as he reaches his peak years, that adds up to $17 worth of estimated production in 2011 - this creates a surplus of $7 million. Add to that the expected value of the compensatory draft picks and that gives a total surplus of $13 million over 2011.

So they've swapped $13 million of value for one year of Infante (albeit at a reduced wage) and whatever they can get out of Dunn. If playing everyday, Infante should be worth a ~$3 million surplus over his actual wage so it boils down to losing $10 million and getting Dunn.

Daft
If I'm not mistaken, Uggla even made his lofty demands of a 5yr/$71 public prior to negotiations which hurt both he and the Marlins FO.
Click to expand...

5/71 isn't that bad of a deal for a team taking on Uggla. Obviously when the Yankees and Red Sox aren't in the bidding, the price is depressed, but 5/71 doesn't look overpriced to me at all.

Daft
Draft picks in baseball are not draft picks in the NBA (I know you know this I'm just pointing it out).
Click to expand...

Yes, that's obviously true but draft picks in MLB still have an expected value based on what the expected average return will be. The variance of actual return from that expected return is a lot higher in baseball but each draft pick still has a monetary value.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.