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Contest Strategy Question

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Herman

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Lets say I was having a season long college basketball handicapping contest against someone with minimum game limits for both players having been met.

Lets also say I was up about 16 units on him, and there is a few weeks left in the regular season and the tournament still to play. Lets say he has a couple hundred plays he could potentially still use. What should my strategy be, keep making plays or stand still and make him pick some winners before I do anything? If I stop making plays, at what point should I begin to make plays (if he cuts my lead to 10 units, 5 units, etc.)?

BTW options on plays are sides, totals, and ML's between +400/-250. Contest is for $500, which is not a ton of money, but I'd rather not lose since I've been leading for the whole season. Comments would be appreciated.
 
It would depend on how many games you've both played, games you potentially both have left, what the respective records are now and whether you/he is a +EV gambler. That's amongst other things that I can't quite think of at the moment, but more information will get you a better answer.
 
My record: 274-256-6, +4.29 units

His record: 252-243-9, -11.92 units

Basically, we can play as many games as we want for the rest of the season. Not sure that one would necessarily have an advantage by being able to play the entire board though, that would be a disadvantage to do that. Is he a +EV gambler? I guess, but he's down 12 units in 500 plays so I'm not sure.
 
Herman
I will just pretend I am the sportsbook I guess and just "book" his bets the rest of the way and hope he doesn't hit +16 units.
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Based on the figures you gave, that's the best thing to do. Just think that you're both coin-flip handicappers - if you do nothing that he'll have to make up 16 units. If you start betting you have (assuming no VIG) an equal chance of increasing or decreasing your advantage. For the risk adverse, like many people in the final stages of a contest or on in the last leg of a 10 team parlay, staying put is the best option.
 
AMBy
Is there a rule that states you can't play the same plays as him? If there isn't a rule that states such....just mirror him the rest of the way.
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dirty but if its not in the rules....
than its not in the rules.


if its was me I'd just sit back and see how he does. odds are against him.
maybe make 1 play a day at the most if you really, really like a game
otherwise just let him force plays tryin to catch up
 
Herman
Only up 10 units now.

Thinking about just playing games like normal to put this fuck away myself and not let him catch up?

Talk to me.
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Since we can't infer a lot about winning percentages from your respective records, since the odds can range between -250 and +400, the samples do show that neither of you are statistically better than a coin-flip. That's often what happens in contests with this many plays where the quantity of the picks you have to make generally outweigh the quality. This being the case, every bet you have placed so far has had a negative expectation so making further ones will only hurt your record on average. However, if you spot bet a small number of wagers that have a +EV then you should do that. However, I would just sit tight and see if he catches you up.
 
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