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Cleveland Cavaliers Exit Title Race, Is LeBron Next

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July 1, the day when LeBron James becomes the most sought after free agent on the market, got a lot nearer (well metaphorically at least) on Thursday when the Cleveland Cavaliers were unable to overcome the Boston Celtics and so the team with the best season record fell short again following a 94-85 defeat. As well as back to back MVP Awards for James, the Cavaliers have had back to back 60+ win seasons and failed to reach the finals in back to back years Cleveland will take no satisfaction from being only the second team in NBA history to record that statistic.

At the post match press conference, James was quizzed about his future whether it be with Cleveland or whoever else and the answers were diplomatic to say the least. However, when faced with questions about his fate after July 1 following a second consecutive early exit from the playoffs, a body language expert could write a thesis about the constant touching of his ear when answering some of the more awkward questions.

I want to win. Thats my only thing, my only concern, said James. Ive always prided myself, its all about winning for me and I think the Cavs are committed to doing that. But at the same time, Ive given myself options to this point. Me and my team, we have a game plan that well execute and well see where were at.


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From the point of view of the neutral fan it prevented an eagerly awaited James Vs Kobe Bryant matchup, who between them have monopolized the MVP Award for the past three seasons, in the NBA Finals; obviously the fix wasn't on this year. And so, despite the Cavaliers taking both games off the Lakers this season, and with Cleveland outscoring Los Angeles in six out of the eight quarters, it will leave the armchair analysts to decide which of the two MVPs is better. But in the absence of the real dream matchup, and to save listening to some drunk in a sports bar telling you who would have won, Whatifsports did one of it's own.

Running a simulation on the 2010 Cavaliers Vs 2010 Lakers 1001 times, taking into account the entire statistical make-up of both teams, Cleveland would take the series 68.5% of the time (representing a -217 moneyline) winning on average 104.5 to 98.0. Taking things further, and to get a more accurate measure about the respective worth of the players, Whatifsports simulated a trade of James to the Lakers and Bryant to the Cavaliers since they play different positions the depth charts were also tweaked for accuracy. Showing the advantage Bryant has with a much better supporting cast, the LeBron Lakers would take the series on 81.3% of simulations (or a -435 moneyline) over Kobe's Cavs.

With the value of James to an otherwise relatively mediocre Cleveland side in turning them into notable contenders, it might mean that re-signing James along with a trade to strengthen the team would keep them as the team to beat. However a more high profile to the Nets, who are moving to Brooklyn in 2012 and have a new billionaire owner along with the best chance of the #1 draft pick this year, might be just the challenge and the paycheck that James is looking for.


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