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ChuteBoxe's Strikeforce Nashville Picks and Writeups

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Gilbert Melendez (-160) vs. Shinya Aoki (+140)

This is a funky fight, and depending on how you break it down, decides which side has value for you. Melendez is a tad high at -160, IMO, but it's the right play. I had it capped around -135 or -140, was hoping to split straws, and maybe see a move down to -150, but that didn't happen. So, I bet it at Bookmaker and it's steamed up since. I'd imagine once I officially release this, it will steam up a little at 5Dimes as well, so get it in early if you can.

This fight is a clash of styles, where you have a Japanese judo and bjj expert, against a very well-rounded fighter in Gilbert Melendez. Melendez also has great cardio, FWIW. I really see this as Gilbert's fight to lose, and it's a solid matchup for him. I think Aoki's kickboxing is very subpar, and that will hurt him substantially in this fight. It will allow Melendez to dictate the pace. Melendez is a great wrestler, with a good sprawl. Aoki would have to shoot in, and do something impressive to take down Gilbert. I think Gilbert learned from the Guida and Thompson fights, and will stay on the outside and work his jabs and thai kicks.

Even if this fight goes to the ground, Melendez is a very underrated BJJ artist. People tend to forget he trains with Caesar Gracie Jiu Jitsu, and guys like the Diaz brothers. Aoki is very good in his ownright (#2 world ranking), but I'm really having troulbe these days respecting those worldwide rankings, because let's be honest, Japanese MMA is very soft, and the matchmakers set up fights based on the excitement factor.

GILBERT MELENDEZ (-160) FOR 4 UNITS


Gegard Mousasi (-250) vs. King Mo Lawal(+210)

A solid Armenian striker vs. a very solid NCAA Champion wrestler from Oklahoma State University. Lawal was also an olympic hopeful, but he lost in the finals in 2008 with 7 seconds to go in the final match of qualifications. Mousasi is no joke, and has a tremendous track record in his own right, beating solid opponents like Babalu, Jacare, Kang, Cyborg, etc...

However, at +210 i see excellent value in King Mo. It won't be an easy fight, by any means, but I think he'll use his boxing skills to throw off Mousasi, and set up takedowns at the end of rounds to score some points. I think it goes to decision, with neither fighter being able to take out the other. Many different ways for this fight to go, and I just can't lay -250, against an impressive up and coming fighter like King Mo.

KING MO LAWAL (+210) RISKING 2 UNITS


Dan Henderson (-410) vs. Jake Shields (+330)

Reasons I dislike Jake Shields...

Henderson's olympic style wrestling will be too good for Jake Shields. Shields is also the smaller guy naturally moving up to 170. While Hendo will prob move up in weight after this fight, or at least that's the rumor. Hendo's not a great boxer, but it's still light years ahead of Shields in my opinion. Shields has also had Cardio issues in the past, and has documented problems with big name fighters. I really see no way for Dan Henderson to lose this fight, maybe if he gets in trouble on the ground somehow and is mounted, but I think 9/10 times Dan Henderson wins this fight. Tremendous value in -410. If I liked chalk, I would lay way more than 1 unit.

DAN HENDERSON (-410) FOR 1 UNIT
 
here's my lawal writeup, I think we are getting tremendous value here

if bookmaker or 5 dimes make the mistake of putting Mo at +200 again I'm pounding that shit, I just watched every single Gegard fight over the last 3 years, from Gono all the way to SOKO.

I watched his k-1 fight and find it laughable at that being the reason so many people think he is an elite striker. The guy he fought was something like 6-10 his last 16 fights and was completely washed up at the point of that fight. Even though he is a tall striker he doesn't use his reach and height very effectively, basically a lot of forward and backward movement, doesn't use enough angles to throw his opponents off, something Mo does an excellent job at, also don't think he properly generates power in his punches, throws a lot from his shoulders, opposed to Mo who throws his whole body into his punches, starting from his legs and follows through with his hips generating maximum power.

few things that I was impressed with was Gegard's ability to just completely out work Hector Lombard on the mat, few sweeps that he got were just amazing, Hector looked gassed after the first 5 mins so that could have played a big role in it, sweeps and leg kicks are my primary concern for KIng Mo, i could see Gegard chopping him down for the first 3 rounds if it makes it that far.

Dean Lister was commenting on how amazed he was on how fast Mo was picking up the intricacies off bjj, also working with Werdum, Big NOG, and Sobral should really have him ready to defend the sub. I don't think Gegard has fought somebody with same ability to just power out of whatever he might Lock Mo into

I look at Gegard's 15 fight win streak and I don't see a single fighter outside of maybe Souza that really brought a serious threat to snapping his streak, mostly one dimensional fighters that he was able to dictate to where the fight went, not the case with MO

I said before the Soko fight that I thought Soko would be his toughest fight and thought he had a stand up advantage, even had a small play on Soko. IMO he lost that first round and was exposed just a bit, I think Mo is twice the fighter soko is so you can imagine how my confidence has only started to grow every time I stop to think about this fight, The way I look at it, MO does two things better than Gegard and Gegard only does one thing better than MO
 
i missed a free money op by not buying some mo at 215 earlier...oh well, i feel his is going to have to catch gegard with a wild punch...gegard has the best boxing background but would probably rather be on the ground than anywhere else with mo... he will use his leg kicks and knees to keep mo at a distance (mo seems to be susceptible to kicks) and we all know if gegard gets him on the ground, its only a matter of time before he subs him. gl boys, if i cant get out of here in the next hour, ill be here with yall tonight:pink2:
 
illmatick
here's my lawal writeup, I think we are getting tremendous value here

if bookmaker or 5 dimes make the mistake of putting Mo at +200 again I'm pounding that shit, I just watched every single Gegard fight over the last 3 years, from Gono all the way to SOKO.

I watched his k-1 fight and find it laughable at that being the reason so many people think he is an elite striker. The guy he fought was something like 6-10 his last 16 fights and was completely washed up at the point of that fight. Even though he is a tall striker he doesn't use his reach and height very effectively, basically a lot of forward and backward movement, doesn't use enough angles to throw his opponents off, something Mo does an excellent job at, also don't think he properly generates power in his punches, throws a lot from his shoulders, opposed to Mo who throws his whole body into his punches, starting from his legs and follows through with his hips generating maximum power.

few things that I was impressed with was Gegard's ability to just completely out work Hector Lombard on the mat, few sweeps that he got were just amazing, Hector looked gassed after the first 5 mins so that could have played a big role in it, sweeps and leg kicks are my primary concern for KIng Mo, i could see Gegard chopping him down for the first 3 rounds if it makes it that far.

Dean Lister was commenting on how amazed he was on how fast Mo was picking up the intricacies off bjj, also working with Werdum, Big NOG, and Sobral should really have him ready to defend the sub. I don't think Gegard has fought somebody with same ability to just power out of whatever he might Lock Mo into

I look at Gegard's 15 fight win streak and I don't see a single fighter outside of maybe Souza that really brought a serious threat to snapping his streak, mostly one dimensional fighters that he was able to dictate to where the fight went, not the case with MO

I said before the Soko fight that I thought Soko would be his toughest fight and thought he had a stand up advantage, even had a small play on Soko. IMO he lost that first round and was exposed just a bit, I think Mo is twice the fighter soko is so you can imagine how my confidence has only started to grow every time I stop to think about this fight, The way I look at it, MO does two things better than Gegard and Gegard only does one thing better than MO
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Nice writeup. I also love King Mo from a value standpoint. Think this is the last time we'll see him as this heavy of a dog unless it's against a top tier opponent.
 
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